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Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration
Chiba, Daina1; Johnson, Jesse C.2
2019-10
Source PublicationJournal of Politics
ISSN0022-3816
Volume81Issue:4Pages:1466-1479
Abstract

Forming a military coalition during an international crisis can improve a state’s chances of achieving its political goals. We argue that the involvement of a coalition, however, can have unintended adverse effects on crisis outcomes by complicating the bargaining process and extending the duration of crises. This argument suggests that crises involving coalitions should be significantly longer than crises without coalitions. However, other factors that affect crisis duration are also likely to influence coalition formation. Therefore, taking into account the endogeneity of the presence of a coalition is essential to testing our hypothesis. To deal with this inferential challenge, we develop a new statistical model that is an extension of instrumental variable estimation in survival analysis. Our analysis of 255 post–World War II interstate crises demonstrates that, even after accounting for the endogeneity of coalition formation, military coalitions tend to extend the duration of crises by approximately 284 days.

KeywordMilitary Conflict Military Coalition Duration Analysis
DOI10.1086/704598
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS IDWOS:000487743100024
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85071910342
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
Affiliation1.University of Essex
2.University of Kentucky
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chiba, Daina,Johnson, Jesse C.. Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration[J]. Journal of Politics, 2019, 81(4), 1466-1479.
APA Chiba, Daina., & Johnson, Jesse C. (2019). Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration. Journal of Politics, 81(4), 1466-1479.
MLA Chiba, Daina,et al."Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration".Journal of Politics 81.4(2019):1466-1479.
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