| Status | 已發表Published |
| 2019-2020 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao | |
Chan, C. S. ; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.
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| 2019-09-04 | |
| Abstract | On July 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global economy to grow at 3.2% and 3.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Global growth remains subdued. The trade conflict between the United States and China escalated amid government negotiation. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand at 2.3% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. The Euro Area is likely to grow at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. For Mainland China, the negative effects of the trade friction with the U.S. and other structural adjustments continued. The official economic growth came in at 6.7% in the second quarter, down from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2019. This caused Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to grow barely with 0.5% in the second quarter of 2019. Economic uncertainty continues to affect Macao’s economic growth in 2019 and 2020. Macao's exports of services are expected to grow slower with 1.5% and 0.0% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Exports of goods are expected to decline by 15.5% and 3.0% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Concomitant with the weak growth in consumption and investment, imports of goods are expected to rise slower by 0.3% and 1.8% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Amid the deterioration in exports of services, the imports of services are expected to decline. The growth rates of imports of services are forecast to decrease by 11.6% and 3.2% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending is expected to grow slower, at rates of 2.6% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Total investment is expected to decline at 22.7% and 14.8% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to be steady. Inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% and 2.4% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 2.9% and 2.6% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. The labour market continues to be tight amid limited labour supply. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.8% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of residents is expected to be 2.4% and 2.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to be 16,575 MOP and 16,655 MOP in 2019 and 2020 respectively. For the whole economy, Macao’s GDP is expected to decline by 0.8%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate -4.1% to an optimistic of rate 2.5% in 2019. The slowdown is expected to continue in 2020. Macao’s GDP is forecast to decline by 0.9%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate -10.6% to an optimistic of rate 8.8% in 2020. The exports of services are highly influenced by external economic conditions and government policies. They may adjust greatly throughout the year. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment regularly (Table and Figures 23 to 27). |
| Keyword | Macroeconomics Forecast Macau economy |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 54557 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Corresponding Author | Chan, C. S. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Chan, C. S.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. 2019-2020 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao, 2019. |
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