| Status | 已發表Published |
| Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao September 2018 | |
Chan, C. S. ; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.
| |
| 2018-09-26 | |
| Abstract | According to the IMF forecasts on July 2018, global growth is projected to grow at 3.8% in both 2018 and 2019, reflecting a more upswing outlook from advanced economies. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand at 3.0% and 2.4% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The Euro Area is likely to grow at 1.9% and 2.0% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For Mainland China, economy continued to grow strongly with rate of 6.7% in the second quarter of 2018. This caused Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a stronger growth. It grew by 3.5% in second quarter of 2018. However, economic uncertainty is on the horizon. The U.S. Fed is expected to raise its interest rate continually. The Donald Trump’s administration creates trade friction between the U.S. and other countries. Eurozone countries continue to face debt crisis. Mainland China’s economy would slow down and the Central Government tries to use accommodative monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize the economic growth. These may affect Macao’s economic growth in 2019. Macao's exports of services are expected to increase by 13.6% this year and are expected to grow slower with 8.7% next year. Exports of goods are expected to increase by 18.1% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Concomitant with the recovery in local consumption, imports of goods are expected to rise by 7.5% in both 2018 and 2019. Amid the rise in exports of services, the imports of services will expand. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to increase by 17.4% and 9.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending continued to grow steadily. It is expected to grow at 5.0% in both 2018 and 2019. Total investment is expected to decline at 5.7% in 2018 and grow at 4.4% in 2019 respectively. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to be higher. Inflation rate is expected to be 3.3% in 2018 and 3.9% in 2019 respectively. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 3.4% and 4.1% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The labour market continues to be tight. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 2.0% and 1.9% in 2018 in 2019 respectively. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of residents is expected to be 2.6% and 2.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to be 16,077 MOP and 16,638 MOP in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For the whole economy, Macao’s GDP is expected to grow by 8.3%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate 5.1% to an optimistic of rate 11.6% in 2018; and by 7.1%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate -2.4% to an optimistic of rate 16.6% in 2019. The exports of services are highly influenced by external economic conditions and government policies. They may adjust greatly throughout the year. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment regularly (Table and Figures 23 to 27). |
| Keyword | Macroeconomics Forecast Macau economy |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 42759 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Corresponding Author | Chan, C. S. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Chan, C. S.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao September 2018, 2018. |
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