| Status | 已發表Published |
| Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2016 | |
Mirrlees, J. A.; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W. ; Chan, C. S.
| |
| 2016-01-29 | |
| Abstract | According to the IMF forecasts on January 2016, global growth will be lower to about 3.4% in 2016. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand at 2.6% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at 1.7%. For Mainland China, the GDP growth rate has slowed down to 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015. This affected Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a lower growth. It grew by 2.3% in third quarter of 2015. The U.S. Fed has raised its interest rate on December 2015 and is expected to continue the increase in 2016. European Central Bank has begun its Quantitative Easing to mitigate the possibility of recession and deflation in eurozone. Mainland China’s GDP expected to grow at slower pace in 2016 amid the Central Government tries to reform mainland China’s economic structure. Macao gaming revenue was hit by the Central Government’s policy on anti-graft campaign. As Macau Pacata is indirectly pegged to US dollar through the link with Hong Kong dollar, its value continues to appreciate against other currencies. These factors will put pressure on Macao’s tourist industry. The exports of services are expected to decrease by 33.4% and 15.6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Exports of goods grew drastically in 2014 and are expected to grow by 14.7% and 0.3% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Concomitant with the slowdown in local consumption and investment, imports of goods are expected to grow by 2.7% and 0.2% in 2015 and 2016. Amid the decline in exports of services, the imports of services will contract. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to decline by 33.9% in 2015 and 22.5% in 2016. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending grew slower in 2015. It is expected to grow at 3.4% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Private investment in casinos and hotels increased vigorously in 2014. As the major construction was finalized in the middle year of 2015, total investment is expected to grow 3.2% in 2015. Total investment is expected to decline 22.1% in 2016. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to continue to decline amid sluggish demand from local residents. It is expected to be 4.6% in 2015 and further down to 3.6% in 2016. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 4.7% and 3.9% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. The labour market continued to loosen. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.9% and 2.3% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is expected to be 2.6% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to rise by 14.5% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016. For the whole economy, Macao’s GDP is expected to decline of rate 13.6%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate 21.1% to an optimistic of rate -6.2% in 2016, according to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Data and our forecast indicate the possibility of continuous adjustment of Macao’s growth in 2016. Given the gross gaming revenue is highly influenced by government policies and may adjust greatly throughout the year, reflected by the short term fluctuation. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment. |
| Keyword | Macroeconomic Forecast Macao GDP growth |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 16684 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Corresponding Author | Liu, C. W. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mirrlees, J. A.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2016, 2016. |
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