| Status | 已發表Published |
| Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2015 | |
Mirrlees, J. A.; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.; Chan, C. S.
| |
| 2015-04-24 | |
| Abstract | According to the IMF forecasts on April 2015, global growth will moderate to about 3.5% in 2015. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand faster at 3.1% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at 1.5%. For Mainland China, the GDP growth rate has slowed down to 7.4% in 2014 and 7.0% in the first quarter of 2015. This will affect Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a more measurable growth. It grew by 2.3% in 2014. The U.S. Fed may begin to increase its interest rate in 2015. European Central Bank began its Quantitative Easing to mitigate the possibility of recession and deflation in eurozone. Mainland China’s GDP expected to grow at slower pace in 2015 amid the Central Government tries to reform mainland China’s economic structure. Macao gaming revenue was hit by the Central Government’s policy on anti-graft campaign. The negative effect is expected to continue in 2015. The new openings of casinos and hotels in the second half of the year should ease the decline. The exports of services are expected to decrease by 22.8% in 2015. Exports of goods continued to rebound in 2014 and are expected to grow by 13.2% in 2015. Concomitant with the steadily growth in local consumption and investment, imports of goods are expected to grow by 14.4% in 2015. Amid the decline in exports of services, the imports of services will contract. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to decline by 26.3% in 2015. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending grew steadily. It is expected to grow at 4.9% in 2015. Private investment in casinos and hotels increased vigorously in 2014 and expected to continue in 2015. Total investment is expected to grow at 25.5% in 2015. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to be 5.3% in 2015 amid demand from local residents. It is expected to be 5.3% in 2015. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 7.3% in 2015. The labour market may loose in 2015. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.9% in 2015. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is expected to be 2.6% in 2015. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to rise by 5.9% in 2015. If the gross gaming revenue continues at 60 billion MOP per quarter, Macao’s GDP is expected to decline of rate 14.7%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate 20.4% to an optimistic of rate 9.4% in 2015, according to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Data and our forecast indicate the possibility of continuous adjustment of Macao’s growth in 2015. Given the gross gaming revenue is highly influenced by government policies and may adjust greatly throughout the year, reflected by the short term fluctuation. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment. |
| Keyword | Macroeconomic Forecast Macao GDP growth |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 16452 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mirrlees, J. A.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2015, 2015. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
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