| Status | 已發表Published |
| 2014-2015 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao | |
Mirrlees, J. A.; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.; Chan, C. S.
| |
| 2014-01-10 | |
| Abstract | Macao’s GDP growth has slowed down at the beginning of 2014 and turned negative in the third quarters of 2014. According to the IMF forecasts on October 2014, global growth will moderate to about 3.8% in 2015. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand faster at 3.1% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at 1.3%. For mainland China, the GDP growth rate has slowed down to 7.4% in 2014 and expected to grow at slower pace in 2015 amid the Central Government tries to reform mainland China’s economic structure. This will affect Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a more measurable growth. It grew by 2.7% in the third quarter of 2014. The U.S. Fed may begin to increase its interest rate in 2015. European Central Bank began its Quantitative Easing to ease the possibility of recession and deflation amid the political uncertainty of Greece in 2015. The Central Government accepts lower economic growth rate amid economic reform. Under this circumstance, Macao’s GDP is expected to decline by 2.9%, with ranged from a pessimistic -4.7% to an optimistic 10.6% in 2015, according to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Macao’s service exports slowed down in 2014. Macao gaming revenue was hit by the Central Government’s policy on anti-graft campaign. The exports of services are expected to decline by 3.2% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015. Exports of goods continued to rebound in 2013 and are expected to grow by 12.5% in 2014 and 7.1% in 2015. Concomitant with the steadily growth in local consumption, imports of goods are expected to grow by 15.4% and 19.8% respectively in 2014 and 2015. Amid the decline in exports of services, the imports of services slowed down. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to decline by 12.6% and 4.8% respectively in 2014 and 2015. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending grew steadily. It is expected to grow at 6.4% in 2014 and 5.7% in 2015. Private investment in casinos and hotels increased vigorously in 2014 and expected to continue in 2015. Total investment is expected to grow at 37.8% in 2014 and 24.6% in 2015. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to stay high at about 6.0% in 2014 amid strong demand from local residents. It is expected to be 5.4% in 2015. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 9.0% in 2014 and 7.4% in 2015. The tight labour market is expected to continue. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.7% in 2014 and 2015. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is expected to be 2.3% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to rise by 8.4% and 6.3% in 2014 and 2015 respectively (Table 2 and Figures 23 to 27). |
| Keyword | Macroeconomic Forecast Macao GDP growth |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 16451 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mirrlees, J. A.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. 2014-2015 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao, 2014. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
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