| Status | 已發表Published |
| 2013-2014 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao | |
Mirrlees, J. A.; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.; Chan, C. S.
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| 2014-01-10 | |
| Abstract | Macao’s GDP growth has began to slow down in 2012 and the pace has been steadily in first three quarters of 2013. According to the IMF forecasts on October 2013, global growth will moderate to about 3.6% in 2014. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand 2.6% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at 1.0%. For mainland China, the GDP growth rate has slowed down to 7.8% in the third quarter of 2013 and expected to grow at similar pace in 2014 amid the Central Government tries to reform mainland China’s economic structure. This will affect Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a more measurable growth. It grew by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2013. The U.S. Fed started taping process with reduction of bond purchases at the beginning of January 2014. It suggested taking moderate steps throughout the year to reduce the purchases further if the economy shows continued improvement. It planned to hold its key short-term rate near zero at least until unemployment falls below 6.5 per cent. European countries try to turn around their economies to grow amid the enormous fiscal deficit in Italy and Greece in this year. The Central Government planned to continue its reform on economic structure to have a substantial development. Under this circumstance, Macao’s GDP is expected to grow by 9.1%, with ranged from a pessimistic 3.1% to an optimistic 15.0% in 2014, according to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Macao’s service exports, in particular, the gaming sector, slowed down in 2012. With a steady growth in the major markets, the exports of services are expected to grow by 10.0% in 2013 and 9.7% in 2013. The decline of exports of goods rebounded in 2012 and is expected to grow by 9.8% in 2013 and 9.1% in 2014. Concomitant with the slow down in the total exports and domestic demand in 2012, the growth of imports of goods and services reduced significantly. Imports of goods and services are expected to grow by 13.8% and 0.6% respectively in 2013. The growth rates are expected to be 12.4% and 3.4% respectively in 2014. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending grew more slowly in 2012. It is expected to grow steadily at 6.0% in 2013 and 6.2% in 2014. Investment growth was considerably in 2012 but slowed down in 2013. Investment is expected to grow at 6.0% in 2013 and 4.9% in 2014. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to stay high at about 5.0% amid strong demand from local residents and foreign visitors and increase in imported prices for consumer products. As a result, inflation rate in Macao is expected to be 5.5% in 2013 and 5.2% in 2014. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 6.9% in 2013 and 6.6% in 2014. The tight labour market is expected to continue. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.8% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2014. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is expected to be 2.4% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to rise by 6.8% and 5.6% in 2013 and 2014 respectively. |
| Keyword | Macroeconomic Forecast Macao GDP growth |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 12338 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mirrlees, J. A.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. 2013-2014 Economic Analysis and Forecast for Macao, 2014. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
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