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Effect of dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for London Cycle Hire at the disaggregate level using a deep learning approach
Hongliang Ding1; Yuhuan Lu2,3; N. N. Sze1; Haojie Li4,5,6
2022-12-01
Source PublicationTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0965-8564
Volume166Pages:150-163
Abstract

To evaluate the dynamic effects of the dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand of the London Cycle Hire (LCH) scheme at the station level, a novel bicycle demand prediction model is proposed using the deep learning approach, based on the transaction records at 645 docking stations of LCH in the period between July 2017 and March 2018. First, an intervention response module (IRM) is established to model the time-series trends of bicycle demands at individual LCH docking stations, with and without the dockless bike-sharing scheme. Then, the Graph Neural Networks (GNN) predictors are adopted to predict the demand for LCH, incorporating the learned effects from IRM. Results indicate that the proposed bicycle demand prediction model can achieve promising prediction performances, with higher R-squared (R), lower Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE) and lower Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), compared to conventional prediction models. More importantly, the proposed model can recognize the dynamic effects of the dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for LCH. For instance, there are possible spillover effects for the influence area of dockless bike-sharing scheme, especially for the neighboring areas that have well-integrated bicycle facilities (e.g., cycle lanes). In addition, the effect of dockless bike sharing on the demand for LCH can magnify over time. Moreover, influences on the demands on weekends are more remarkable than that on weekdays. Findings should improve the understanding on the interdependency between the demands of dockless and docked bike-sharing systems. This should shed light to the optimal management strategy for the docked bike-sharing system that can maximize the operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

KeywordBicycle Demand Bike Sharing Deep Learning Graph Neural Network Intervention Response Module
DOI10.1016/j.tra.2022.10.013
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics ; Transportation
WOS SubjectEconomics ; Transportation ; Transportation Science & Technology
WOS IDWOS:000918078400001
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85143767347
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorN. N. Sze
Affiliation1.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
2.Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao
3.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao
4.School of Transportation, Southeast University, China
5.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, China
6.Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern, Urban Traffic Technologies, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hongliang Ding,Yuhuan Lu,N. N. Sze,et al. Effect of dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for London Cycle Hire at the disaggregate level using a deep learning approach[J]. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE, 2022, 166, 150-163.
APA Hongliang Ding., Yuhuan Lu., N. N. Sze., & Haojie Li (2022). Effect of dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for London Cycle Hire at the disaggregate level using a deep learning approach. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE, 166, 150-163.
MLA Hongliang Ding,et al."Effect of dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for London Cycle Hire at the disaggregate level using a deep learning approach".TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE 166(2022):150-163.
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