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Short-Term Travel-Time Prediction using Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbor Method
Meng, Meng1; Toan, Trinh Dinh2; Wong, Yiik Diew3; Lam, Soi Hoi4
2022-06-01
Source PublicationTransportation Research Record
Publication Place2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320
PublisherSAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
Pages353-365
Abstract

This paper presents an investigation into the performance of support vector machine (SVM) in short-term travel-time prediction in comparison with baseline methods, including the historical mean, current time based, and time varying coefficient predictors. To demonstrate the SVM performance, 1-month time-series speed data on a section of Pan-Island Expressway in Singapore were used to estimate the travel time for training and testing the SVM model. The results show that the SVM method significantly outperforms the baseline methods in both normal and recurring congestion over a wide range of prediction intervals. In studying SVM prediction behavior under incident situations, the results show that all the predictors are not responsive enough using 15-minute aggregated field data, but the SVM predicted outcome follows the test data profile closely for 2-minute aggregated simulated data. Finally, to improve the prediction performance, an empirical k-nearest neighbor method is introduced to retrieve patterns closest to the test vector for SVM training. The results show that k-Nearest Neighbor is an attractive tool for SVM travel-time prediction. In retrieving the most similar patterns for SVM training, k-nearest neighbor allows dramatic reduction of training size to accelerate the training task while maintaining prediction accuracy.

KeywordArtificial Intelligence And Advanced Computing Applications Data Analytics Data And Data Science Information Systems And Technology Machine Learning (Artificial Intelligence) Supervised Learning Support Vector Machines Traffic Predication
DOI10.1177/03611981221074371
URLView the original
Language英語English
Volume2676
Issue6
Indexed BySCIE
WOS IDWOS:000753816600001
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Transportation ; Transportation Science & Technology
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Transportation
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85135372758
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Document TypeBook chapter
CollectionUniversity of Macau
Corresponding AuthorToan, Trinh Dinh
Affiliation1.School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom
2.Department of Transportation Engineering, Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
3.School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
4.University of Macau, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Meng, Meng,Toan, Trinh Dinh,Wong, Yiik Diew,et al. Short-Term Travel-Time Prediction using Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbor Method[M]. Transportation Research Record, 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320:SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2022, 353-365.
APA Meng, Meng., Toan, Trinh Dinh., Wong, Yiik Diew., & Lam, Soi Hoi (2022). Short-Term Travel-Time Prediction using Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbor Method. Transportation Research Record, 2676(6), 353-365.
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