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Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Image Processing With Put-Call Volatility Gap Surface
Qi, Yuanyuan1; Guo, Guoxiang1; Wang, Yang2; Yen, Jerome1
2024-02
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems
ISSN2329-924X
Volume11Issue:1Pages:267-281
Abstract

Analyzing the market sentiment and forecasting movements in asset prices is extremely important and has been attempted by researchers and market practitioners. Asset volatilities, regardless of historical ones or implied from the option prices, are crucial barometers of the market. And this research proposes a new approach that combines image processing and machine learning to capture the relationships between sentiment-related features and asset movement. The proposed research is based on the tick-level SPY options transactions, and the dataset contains around 1.5 million trading records. Specially, we obtained the gap between the call surface and the put surface as the second-level implied volatility surface (IVS). After adopting the traditional convolutional neural network (CNN) to compare the predictive effects among implied volatility (IV) call surface, IV put surface, and IV gap surface, the results indicate that the IV gap provides the most significant predictability. Besides, our project creatively proposes the interframe difference approach to optimized CNN and a recurrent CNN (RCNN) to fully utilize spatial and temporal features of the IV surface data. According to experiment results, the directional accuracy of prediction ranges from 67.20% to 72.05% for asset movement forecasting at the millisecond level.

KeywordAsset Movement Prediction Deep Learning Image Processing Implied Volatility (Iv) Market Sentiment
DOI10.1109/TCSS.2022.3224054
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Cybernetics ; Computer Science, Information Systems
WOS IDWOS:000912791700001
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85144093800
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorYen, Jerome
Affiliation1.Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau, China
2.Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Shenzhen, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Qi, Yuanyuan,Guo, Guoxiang,Wang, Yang,et al. Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Image Processing With Put-Call Volatility Gap Surface[J]. IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems, 2024, 11(1), 267-281.
APA Qi, Yuanyuan., Guo, Guoxiang., Wang, Yang., & Yen, Jerome (2024). Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Image Processing With Put-Call Volatility Gap Surface. IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems, 11(1), 267-281.
MLA Qi, Yuanyuan,et al."Market Sentiment Analysis Based on Image Processing With Put-Call Volatility Gap Surface".IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems 11.1(2024):267-281.
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