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Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Considering Weather Conditions
Wenkang Cui1; Can Wan1; Yonghua Song1,2
2022
Conference Name2022 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM)
Source PublicationIEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Volume2022-July
Conference Date17-21 July 2022
Conference PlaceDenver, CO, USA
CountryUSA
PublisherIEEE
Abstract

Rapid growing of photovoltaic (PV) power puts forward higher requirements for PV power generation forecasting. However, the volatility and fluctuation of meteorological factors bring severe forecasting uncertainties. This paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating extreme learning machine-based quantile regression and hidden Markov model (HMEQR) for probabilistic forecasting of PV power to effectively quantify the forecasting uncertainties. The constructed hidden Markov model takes the numerical weather prediction (NWP) data as observation series and succeeds to extract the latent meteorological states for every moment, which benefits the conditional modeling of probabilistic forecasting. The extreme learning machine-based quantile regression (EQR) model is constructed under various weather conditions to produce conditional predictive quantiles for forecasting distribution description. Trained with efficient linear programming, the EQR model lowers the computational complexity and maintains satisfactory overall performances. Comprehensive case studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed HMEQR model compared with mature approaches.

KeywordProbabilistic Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Hidden Markov Model Quantile Regression Weather Condition
DOI10.1109/PESGM48719.2022.9917228
URLView the original
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85141531737
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Faculty of Science and Technology
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wenkang Cui,Can Wan,Yonghua Song. Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Considering Weather Conditions[C]:IEEE, 2022.
APA Wenkang Cui., Can Wan., & Yonghua Song (2022). Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Considering Weather Conditions. IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2022-July.
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