Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems | |
Lambert, Ben1; Lei, Chon Lok2; Robinson, Martin3; Clerx, Michael4; Creswell, Richard3; Ghosh, Sanmitra5; Tavener, Simon6; Gavaghan, David J.3 | |
2023-02-22 | |
Source Publication | Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
ISSN | 1742-5689 |
Volume | 20Issue:199Pages:20220725 |
Abstract | Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of factors not explicitly included in the mathematical model. For this, independent Gaussian noise is commonly chosen, with its use so widespread that researchers typically provide no explicit justification for this choice. This noise model assumes 'random' latent factors affect the system in the ephemeral fashion resulting in unsystematic deviation of observables from their modelled counterparts. However, like the deterministically modelled parts of a system, these latent factors can have persistent effects on observables. Here, we use experimental data from dynamical systems drawn from cardiac physiology and electrochemistry to demonstrate that highly persistent differences between observations and modelled quantities can occur. Considering the case when persistent noise arises owing only to measurement imperfections, we use the Fisher information matrix to quantify how uncertainty in parameter estimates is artificially reduced when erroneously assuming independent noise. We present a workflow to diagnose persistent noise from model fits and describe how to remodel accounting for correlated errors. |
Keyword | Autocorrelation Bayesian Statistics Fisher Information Inference Measurement Error Ordinary Differential Equations |
DOI | 10.1098/rsif.2022.0725 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
WOS Subject | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS ID | WOS:000936200300004 |
Publisher | ROYAL SOC, 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85148998492 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Institute of Translational Medicine DEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES |
Corresponding Author | Lambert, Ben |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PY, United Kingdom 2.Faculty of Health Sciences, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Macau, Macau, Macao 3.Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom 4.School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom 5.MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, United Kingdom 6.Department of Mathematics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, United States |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Lambert, Ben,Lei, Chon Lok,Robinson, Martin,et al. Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2023, 20(199), 20220725. |
APA | Lambert, Ben., Lei, Chon Lok., Robinson, Martin., Clerx, Michael., Creswell, Richard., Ghosh, Sanmitra., Tavener, Simon., & Gavaghan, David J. (2023). Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 20(199), 20220725. |
MLA | Lambert, Ben,et al."Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems".Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20.199(2023):20220725. |
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