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Asset Movement Forcasting with the Implied Volatility Surface Analysis Based on SABR Model
Xu, Shaowei; Huan, Hongxin; Qi, Yuanyuan; Guo, Guoxiang; Yen, Jerome
2022
Conference Name2022 IEEE 20th International Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN)
Source PublicationIEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN)
Volume2022-July
Pages662-667
Conference Date25-28 July 2022
Conference PlacePerth, Australia
Author of SourceInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Publication PlaceUSA
PublisherIEEE, 345 E 47TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10017 USA
Abstract

In financial field, predicting the future price of an asset has always been a hot topic. There are mainly two existing methods: One is to model the trend of asset prices in price prediction. Therefore, this method inevitably has a lag at the inflection point of the asset sequence. The other is to mine market opinion information from the internet to predict the future direction of prices. The challenge with this approach is that unstructured data processing and analysis is difficult. Therefore, we propose a method for asset movement prediction based on SABR [3] model. On the one hand, the market's prediction of asset trends implied in options can be used to solve the hysteresis problem. On the other hand, options data is easy to process and analyze. In this article, we try to use a neural network model to capture the market's view of the future trend of assets hidden in the stochastic volatility surface generated by the stochastic volatility model and establish a mapping relationship with asset prices. The results show that our methods can effectively eliminate the lag of price prediction and improve the accuracy of the prediction.

KeywordAsset Movement Prediction Stochastic Volatility Model Sabr Volatility Model Machine Learning
DOI10.1109/INDIN51773.2022.9976114
URLView the original
Indexed ByCPCI-S
Language英語English
WOS IDWOS:000907121600105
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85145775251
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorYen, Jerome
AffiliationFaculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Shaowei,Huan, Hongxin,Qi, Yuanyuan,et al. Asset Movement Forcasting with the Implied Volatility Surface Analysis Based on SABR Model[C]. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., USA:IEEE, 345 E 47TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10017 USA, 2022, 662-667.
APA Xu, Shaowei., Huan, Hongxin., Qi, Yuanyuan., Guo, Guoxiang., & Yen, Jerome (2022). Asset Movement Forcasting with the Implied Volatility Surface Analysis Based on SABR Model. IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN), 2022-July, 662-667.
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