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Mitigating the impact of outliers in traffic crash analysis: A robust Bayesian regression approach with application to tunnel crash data
Zhenning Li1; Haicheng Liao2; Ruru Tang1; Guofa Li3; Yunjian Li4; Chengzhong Xu2
2023-03-11
Source PublicationAccident Analysis and Prevention
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0001-4575
Volume185Pages:107019
Abstract

Traffic crash datasets are often marred by the presence of anomalous data points, commonly referred to as outliers. These outliers can have a profound impact on the results obtained through the application of traditional methods such as logit and probit models, commonly used in the domain of traffic safety analysis, resulting in biased and unreliable estimates. To mitigate this issue, this study introduces a robust Bayesian regression approach, the robit model, which utilizes a heavy-tailed Student's t distribution to replace the link function of these thin-tailed distributions, effectively reducing the influence of outliers on the analysis. Furthermore, a sandwich algorithm based on data augmentation is proposed to enhance the estimation efficiency of posteriors. The proposed model is rigorously tested using a dataset of tunnel crashes, and the results demonstrate its efficiency, robustness, and superior performance compared to traditional methods. The study also reveals that several factors such as night and speeding have a significant impact on the injury severity of tunnel crashes. This research provides a comprehensive understanding of the outliers treatment methods in traffic safety studies and offers valuable recommendations for the development of appropriate countermeasures to effectively prevent severe injuries in tunnel crashes.

KeywordBayesian Inference Robit Model Robust Regression Traffic Safety Modeling Tunnel Crash
DOI10.1016/j.aap.2023.107019
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Transportation
WOS SubjectErgonomics ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary ; Transportation
WOS IDWOS:000963675800001
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTDTHE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85149808952
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Faculty of Science and Technology
INSTITUTE OF APPLIED PHYSICS AND MATERIALS ENGINEERING
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Co-First AuthorZhenning Li
Corresponding AuthorZhenning Li; Chengzhong Xu
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
3.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China
4.Institute of Applied Physics and Materials Engineering, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhenning Li,Haicheng Liao,Ruru Tang,et al. Mitigating the impact of outliers in traffic crash analysis: A robust Bayesian regression approach with application to tunnel crash data[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2023, 185, 107019.
APA Zhenning Li., Haicheng Liao., Ruru Tang., Guofa Li., Yunjian Li., & Chengzhong Xu (2023). Mitigating the impact of outliers in traffic crash analysis: A robust Bayesian regression approach with application to tunnel crash data. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 185, 107019.
MLA Zhenning Li,et al."Mitigating the impact of outliers in traffic crash analysis: A robust Bayesian regression approach with application to tunnel crash data".Accident Analysis and Prevention 185(2023):107019.
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