Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns | |
Tan,Xilong1; Tao,Yubo1,2 | |
2023-04-24 | |
Source Publication | Economic Modelling |
ABS Journal Level | 2 |
ISSN | 0264-9993 |
Volume | 124Pages:106323 |
Contribution Rank | 1 |
Abstract | Cryptocurrencies are widely known for their limited publicly available information, making it challenging to predict market returns. Technical analysis has emerged as an essential tool in this context, but its effectiveness in the cryptocurrency market remains an open question. Using data from nearly 3,000 cryptocurrencies at daily, weekly, and monthly horizons from 2013 to 2022, we systematically re-examine the efficacy of trend-based technical indicators in predicting cryptocurrency market returns and find that price-based signals are more effective in predicting short-term horizons, while volume-based signals are more powerful in predicting long-term horizons. Further analysis shows that machine learning techniques can significantly improve the performance of technical indicators, and technical indicators based on different information respond differently to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results provide direct evidence that volume imparts information to technical analysis independently of price. |
Keyword | Covid-19 Cryptocurrency Investment Horizon Machine Learning Return Predictability Technical Analysis |
DOI | 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106323 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics |
WOS Subject | Economics |
WOS ID | WOS:000990668000001 |
Publisher | ELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85154616012 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | ASIA-PACIFIC ACADEMY OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
Corresponding Author | Tao,Yubo |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Economics,Faculty of Social Sciences,University of Macau,China 2.Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management (APAEM),University of Macau,China |
First Author Affilication | Faculty of Social Sciences |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Social Sciences; University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Tan,Xilong,Tao,Yubo. Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns[J]. Economic Modelling, 2023, 124, 106323. |
APA | Tan,Xilong., & Tao,Yubo (2023). Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns. Economic Modelling, 124, 106323. |
MLA | Tan,Xilong,et al."Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns".Economic Modelling 124(2023):106323. |
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