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Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns
Tan,Xilong1; Tao,Yubo1,2
2023-04-24
Source PublicationEconomic Modelling
ABS Journal Level2
ISSN0264-9993
Volume124Pages:106323
Contribution Rank1
Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are widely known for their limited publicly available information, making it challenging to predict market returns. Technical analysis has emerged as an essential tool in this context, but its effectiveness in the cryptocurrency market remains an open question. Using data from nearly 3,000 cryptocurrencies at daily, weekly, and monthly horizons from 2013 to 2022, we systematically re-examine the efficacy of trend-based technical indicators in predicting cryptocurrency market returns and find that price-based signals are more effective in predicting short-term horizons, while volume-based signals are more powerful in predicting long-term horizons. Further analysis shows that machine learning techniques can significantly improve the performance of technical indicators, and technical indicators based on different information respond differently to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results provide direct evidence that volume imparts information to technical analysis independently of price.

KeywordCovid-19 Cryptocurrency Investment Horizon Machine Learning Return Predictability Technical Analysis
DOI10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106323
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000990668000001
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85154616012
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionASIA-PACIFIC ACADEMY OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Corresponding AuthorTao,Yubo
Affiliation1.Department of Economics,Faculty of Social Sciences,University of Macau,China
2.Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management (APAEM),University of Macau,China
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Social Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Social Sciences;  University of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tan,Xilong,Tao,Yubo. Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns[J]. Economic Modelling, 2023, 124, 106323.
APA Tan,Xilong., & Tao,Yubo (2023). Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns. Economic Modelling, 124, 106323.
MLA Tan,Xilong,et al."Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns".Economic Modelling 124(2023):106323.
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