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Ensemble Deep Learning-Based Non-Crossing Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation
Cui,Wenkang1; Wan,Can1; Song,Yonghua1,2
2022-08-29
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume38Issue:4Pages:3163-3178
Abstract

Probabilistic forecasting that quantifies the prediction uncertainties is crucial for decision-making in power systems. As a prevalent nonparametric probabilistic forecasting approach, traditional machine learning-based quantile regression encounters the quantile crossing problem. This paper proposes a novel ensemble deep learning based non-crossing quantile regression (EDNQR) model for probabilistic wind power forecasting, which does not need any distribution assumption and demonstrates high generalization ability. A unique non-crossing quantile regression strategy is proposed to generate monotonous quantiles with deep learning models. The exponential stacking mapping method is proposed to guarantee the monotonicity of quantiles, and Huber norm pinball loss is introduced for deep learning quantile regression model training. To improve the generalization capability, a two-stage ensemble framework is proposed to integrate homogeneous and heterogeneous deep learning models. The newly-trained base model considers the training performance of the last base model, which benefits the performance boosting of the ensemble model. To overcome the complexity of conventional weight optimization-based model integration, an overall quantile loss index is proposed to serve as an indicator to directly integrate both the homogeneous and heterogeneous deep learning base models. Comprehensive numerical studies based on actual wind farm data validate the superior performance of the proposed EDNQR model in terms of reliability, overall skill and generalization ability.

KeywordDeep Learning Ensemble Non-crossing Probabilistic Forecasting Quantile Regression Wind Power
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3202236
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:001017406700014
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85137915360
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Faculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorWan,Can
Affiliation1.Zhejiang University,College of Electrical Engineering,Hangzhou,310027,China
2.University of Macau,State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City,Taipa,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cui,Wenkang,Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua. Ensemble Deep Learning-Based Non-Crossing Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2022, 38(4), 3163-3178.
APA Cui,Wenkang., Wan,Can., & Song,Yonghua (2022). Ensemble Deep Learning-Based Non-Crossing Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 38(4), 3163-3178.
MLA Cui,Wenkang,et al."Ensemble Deep Learning-Based Non-Crossing Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 38.4(2022):3163-3178.
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