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Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters
Lin Zhang1; W. M. Yan1; Ka-Veng Yuen2
2016-01-31
Conference NameThe 15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering
Source Publication15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2015: New Innovations and Sustainability
Volume2
Issue49
Pages1727-1731
Conference DateNovember 9, 2015 – November 13, 2015
Conference PlaceFukuoka International Congress Center Fukuoka
CountryJapan
Abstract

Failure of dams could lead to not only severe economic loss but also human casualties. Breaching analysis is therefore an important component in the risk assessment of dam safety. Traditionally the breaching process is often characterized by the breach parameters including the breach geometry and hydrograph. Over the decades, a large variety of empirical formulas have been proposed on the basis of different dam failure databases to predict the parameters. In most cases, the goodness-of-fit criteria (e.g., minimizing the sum of squares of the fitting errors) remains the only measure of the formula suitability. It may therefore lead to the use of over-complicated formula due to its higher capability of fitting. In this paper, the Bayesian probabilistic approach is used to revisit the problem. The study concludes a set of empirical formulas for the dam breach parameters which are well-balanced between formula fitting capacity and complexity.

KeywordBayesian Analysis Probability Dam Failure Breach Parameters Model Class Selection
DOI10.3208/jgssp.HKG-12
URLView the original
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84971444938
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Affiliation1.Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lin Zhang,W. M. Yan,Ka-Veng Yuen. Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters[C], 2016, 1727-1731.
APA Lin Zhang., W. M. Yan., & Ka-Veng Yuen (2016). Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters. 15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2015: New Innovations and Sustainability, 2(49), 1727-1731.
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