Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters | |
Lin Zhang1; W. M. Yan1; Ka-Veng Yuen2 | |
2016-01-31 | |
Conference Name | The 15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering |
Source Publication | 15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2015: New Innovations and Sustainability |
Volume | 2 |
Issue | 49 |
Pages | 1727-1731 |
Conference Date | November 9, 2015 – November 13, 2015 |
Conference Place | Fukuoka International Congress Center Fukuoka |
Country | Japan |
Abstract | Failure of dams could lead to not only severe economic loss but also human casualties. Breaching analysis is therefore an important component in the risk assessment of dam safety. Traditionally the breaching process is often characterized by the breach parameters including the breach geometry and hydrograph. Over the decades, a large variety of empirical formulas have been proposed on the basis of different dam failure databases to predict the parameters. In most cases, the goodness-of-fit criteria (e.g., minimizing the sum of squares of the fitting errors) remains the only measure of the formula suitability. It may therefore lead to the use of over-complicated formula due to its higher capability of fitting. In this paper, the Bayesian probabilistic approach is used to revisit the problem. The study concludes a set of empirical formulas for the dam breach parameters which are well-balanced between formula fitting capacity and complexity. |
Keyword | Bayesian Analysis Probability Dam Failure Breach Parameters Model Class Selection |
DOI | 10.3208/jgssp.HKG-12 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-84971444938 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Conference paper |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China 2.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Lin Zhang,W. M. Yan,Ka-Veng Yuen. Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters[C], 2016, 1727-1731. |
APA | Lin Zhang., W. M. Yan., & Ka-Veng Yuen (2016). Empirical formulas in the prediction of breach parameters. 15th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2015: New Innovations and Sustainability, 2(49), 1727-1731. |
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