Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery | |
Ma Chang1; Rogers John2; Zhou Sili3 | |
2023-10 | |
Source Publication | Journal of the European Economic Association |
ABS Journal Level | 4 |
ISSN | 1542-4774 |
Volume | 21Issue:5Pages:2098–2130 |
Abstract | We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate that real GDP growth falls by around 2 percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative initial effects of pandemics and bounce-back are economically contagious through international trade. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in economies with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic. |
DOI | 10.1093/jeea/jvad019 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
Funding Project | From Export to Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms |
WOS Research Area | I10 ; E60 ; F40 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS |
Corresponding Author | Ma Chang; Zhou Sili |
Affiliation | 1.Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China 2.Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China 3.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau; Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management, University of Macau, Macau, China |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 202 |
APA | Ma Chang., Rogers John., & Zhou Sili (2023). Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery. Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(5), 2098–2130. |
MLA | Ma Chang,et al."Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery".Journal of the European Economic Association 21.5(2023):2098–2130. |
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