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Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery
Ma Chang1; Rogers John2; Zhou Sili3
2023-10
Source PublicationJournal of the European Economic Association
ABS Journal Level4
ISSN1542-4774
Volume21Issue:5Pages:2098–2130
Abstract

We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate that real GDP growth falls by around 2 percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative initial effects of pandemics and bounce-back are economically contagious through international trade. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in economies with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic.

DOI10.1093/jeea/jvad019
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
Funding ProjectFrom Export to Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms
WOS Research AreaI10 ; E60 ; F40
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS
Corresponding AuthorMa Chang; Zhou Sili
Affiliation1.Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
2.Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
3.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau; Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management, University of Macau, Macau, China
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Business Administration
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
202
APA Ma Chang., Rogers John., & Zhou Sili (2023). Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery. Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(5), 2098–2130.
MLA Ma Chang,et al."Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery".Journal of the European Economic Association 21.5(2023):2098–2130.
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