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Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology
Li, Yunyi1; Wan, Can1; Cao, Zhaojing2; Song, Yonghua1,2
2023-11-01
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume38Issue:6Pages:5820-5833
Abstract

With large-scale integration of renewable energy such as wind power, probabilistic analysis of optimal power flow becomes crucial for the decision-making of power systems. This paper proposes a novel data-driven integrated probabilistic forecasting and analysis (IPFA) methodology for the nonparametric probabilistic optimal power flow (N-POPF), which internalizes the probabilistic forecasting and nonparametric distributional description forms into uncertainty analysis. The proposed IPFA methodology fully utilizes the uncertainty analysis method to guide the model-free nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power, and then conducts the N-POPF analysis effectively based on the uncertainty information contained in historical data. A comprehensive uncertainty evaluation criterion based on point estimate method and information entropy is proposed to assess both the inherent uncertainty and uncertainty influence of input random variables. Then a model-free multivariate probabilistic forecasting method is established to directly support the solving of N-POPF problems with similar historical measurements. Finally, with deterministic optimal power flow problems corresponding to the selected historical samples, a weighted combination approach for the power flow results is developed to derive the quantiles of the output random variables. Comprehensive experiments on IEEE 24-bus and 118-bus test systems validate the superiority of the proposed IPFA methodology in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

KeywordData-driven Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow Renewable Energy Similarity Measurement Uncertainty
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3228767
URLView the original
Language英語English
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85144748918
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorWan, Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau, Taipa, 999078, Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Yunyi,Wan, Can,Cao, Zhaojing,et al. Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2023, 38(6), 5820-5833.
APA Li, Yunyi., Wan, Can., Cao, Zhaojing., & Song, Yonghua (2023). Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 38(6), 5820-5833.
MLA Li, Yunyi,et al."Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 38.6(2023):5820-5833.
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