Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology | |
Li, Yunyi1; Wan, Can1; Cao, Zhaojing2; Song, Yonghua1,2 | |
2023-11-01 | |
Source Publication | IEEE Transactions on Power Systems |
ISSN | 0885-8950 |
Volume | 38Issue:6Pages:5820-5833 |
Abstract | With large-scale integration of renewable energy such as wind power, probabilistic analysis of optimal power flow becomes crucial for the decision-making of power systems. This paper proposes a novel data-driven integrated probabilistic forecasting and analysis (IPFA) methodology for the nonparametric probabilistic optimal power flow (N-POPF), which internalizes the probabilistic forecasting and nonparametric distributional description forms into uncertainty analysis. The proposed IPFA methodology fully utilizes the uncertainty analysis method to guide the model-free nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power, and then conducts the N-POPF analysis effectively based on the uncertainty information contained in historical data. A comprehensive uncertainty evaluation criterion based on point estimate method and information entropy is proposed to assess both the inherent uncertainty and uncertainty influence of input random variables. Then a model-free multivariate probabilistic forecasting method is established to directly support the solving of N-POPF problems with similar historical measurements. Finally, with deterministic optimal power flow problems corresponding to the selected historical samples, a weighted combination approach for the power flow results is developed to derive the quantiles of the output random variables. Comprehensive experiments on IEEE 24-bus and 118-bus test systems validate the superiority of the proposed IPFA methodology in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency. |
Keyword | Data-driven Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow Renewable Energy Similarity Measurement Uncertainty |
DOI | 10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3228767 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85144748918 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING |
Corresponding Author | Wan, Can |
Affiliation | 1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China 2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau, Taipa, 999078, Macao |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Li, Yunyi,Wan, Can,Cao, Zhaojing,et al. Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2023, 38(6), 5820-5833. |
APA | Li, Yunyi., Wan, Can., Cao, Zhaojing., & Song, Yonghua (2023). Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 38(6), 5820-5833. |
MLA | Li, Yunyi,et al."Data-Driven Nonparametric Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Analysis Methodology".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 38.6(2023):5820-5833. |
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