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Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation: A Combined Bootstrap and Cumulant Method
Wan, Can2; Cui, Wenkang2; Song, Yonghua1,2
2024
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume39Issue:1Pages:1370-1383
Abstract

Probabilistic forecasting provides complete probability information of renewable generation and load, which assists the diverse decision-making tasks in power systems under uncertainties. Conventional machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting methods usually consider the predictive uncertainty following prior distributional assumptions. This article develops a novel combined bootstrap and cumulant (CBC) method to generate nonparametric predictive distribution using higher order statistics for probabilistic forecasting. The CBC method successfully integrates machine learning with conditional moments and cumulants to describe the overall predictive uncertainty. A bootstrap-based conditional moment estimation method is proposed to quantify both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties involved in machine learning. Higher order cumulants are utilized for overall uncertainty quantification based on the estimated conditional moments with its unique additivity. Three types of series expansions including Gram-Charlier, Edgeworth, and Cornish-Fisher expansions are adopted to improve the overall performance and the generalization ability. Comprehensive numerical studies using the actual wind power data validate the effectiveness of the proposed CBC method.

KeywordBootstrap Cumulant Machine Learning Probabilistic Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification Wind Power
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2023.3264821
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:001136086900105
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85153402248
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorWan, Can
Affiliation1.University of Macau, State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Taipa, Macao
2.Zhejiang University, College of Electrical Engineering, Hangzhou, 310027, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wan, Can,Cui, Wenkang,Song, Yonghua. Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation: A Combined Bootstrap and Cumulant Method[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2024, 39(1), 1370-1383.
APA Wan, Can., Cui, Wenkang., & Song, Yonghua (2024). Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation: A Combined Bootstrap and Cumulant Method. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 39(1), 1370-1383.
MLA Wan, Can,et al."Machine Learning-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation: A Combined Bootstrap and Cumulant Method".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 39.1(2024):1370-1383.
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