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Probabilistic Forecasting-Based Reserve Determination Considering Multi-Temporal Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generation
Xu, Yuqi1; Wan, Can1; Liu, Hui2; Zhao, Changfei1; Song, Yonghua1,3
2024
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume39Issue:1Pages:1019-1031
Abstract

Operating reserve, among the most important ancillary services, is a powerful prescription for mitigating increasing uncertainty of renewable generation. Traditional reserve determination neglects uncertainty of renewable generation variations within the dispatch interval, which cannot guarantee sufficient reserve deliverability in real-time operation. This article proposes a probabilistic forecasting-based reserve determination method to efficiently deal with multi-temporal uncertainty of renewable energy in power systems. A novel probabilistic forecasting approach is proposed by integrating Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model into bootstrap-based extreme learning machine. A unified uncertainty model is constructed for depicting both interval-averaged uncertainty and intra-interval uncertainty by combing the probabilistic forecasts and linearized Itô-process model. In current business practices of many independent system operators, the coordinated determination of two well-designed reserve products, including regulating reserve and ramp capability reserve, is formulated in a two-stage robust optimization framework. A Bernstein polynomial-based model reformulation approach is then employed to handle the existing heterogeneity in the sub-models of each stage. Consequently, the integrated reserve determination is embedded in a generic two-stage robust optimization problem, which can be efficiently solved by the adopted modified column-and-constraint generation method. Finally, numerical simulations are implemented to validate the effectiveness and profitability of the proposed approach.

KeywordItã'-process Model Multi-temporal Uncertainty Probabilistic Forecasting Ramp Capability Reserve Regulating Reserve Reserve Determination
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2023.3252720
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:001136086900079
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85149811609
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorWan, Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China
2.The School of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China
3.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Yuqi,Wan, Can,Liu, Hui,et al. Probabilistic Forecasting-Based Reserve Determination Considering Multi-Temporal Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2024, 39(1), 1019-1031.
APA Xu, Yuqi., Wan, Can., Liu, Hui., Zhao, Changfei., & Song, Yonghua (2024). Probabilistic Forecasting-Based Reserve Determination Considering Multi-Temporal Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 39(1), 1019-1031.
MLA Xu, Yuqi,et al."Probabilistic Forecasting-Based Reserve Determination Considering Multi-Temporal Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generation".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 39.1(2024):1019-1031.
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