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Machine learning-based quantitative trading strategies across different time intervals in the American market
Wang, Yimeng1; Yan, Keyue2
2023-11
Source PublicationQuantitative Finance and Economics
ISSN2573-0134
Volume7Issue:4Pages:569-594
Abstract

Stocks are the most common financial investment products and attract many investors around the world. However, stock price volatility is usually uncontrollable and unpredictable for the individual investor. This research aims to apply different machine learning models to capture the stock price trends from the perspective of individual investors. We consider six traditional machine learning models for prediction: decision tree, support vector machine, bootstrap aggregating, random forest, adaptive boosting, and categorical boosting. Moreover, we propose a framework that uses regression models to obtain predicted values of different moving average changes and converts them into classification problems to generate final predictive results. With this method, we achieve the best average accuracy of 0.9031 from the 20-day change of moving average based on the support vector machine model. Furthermore, we conduct simulation trading experiments to evaluate the performance of this predictive framework and obtain the highest average annualized rate of return of 29.57%.

KeywordMachine Learning Moving Average Quantitative Trading Stock Price Prediction
DOI10.3934/QFE.2023028
URLView the original
Indexed ByESCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectBusiness, Finance
WOS IDWOS:001106436800001
PublisherAMER INST MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES-AIMS, PO BOX 2604, SPRINGFIELD, MO 65801-2604, UNITED STATES
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85176925946
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
CHOI KAI YAU COLLEGE
Corresponding AuthorYan, Keyue
Affiliation1.Department of Mathematics, University of Macau, Macau, China
2.Choi Kai Yau College, University of Macau, Macau, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Yimeng,Yan, Keyue. Machine learning-based quantitative trading strategies across different time intervals in the American market[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2023, 7(4), 569-594.
APA Wang, Yimeng., & Yan, Keyue (2023). Machine learning-based quantitative trading strategies across different time intervals in the American market. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 7(4), 569-594.
MLA Wang, Yimeng,et al."Machine learning-based quantitative trading strategies across different time intervals in the American market".Quantitative Finance and Economics 7.4(2023):569-594.
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