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An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling
Li, Zhenning1; Liao, Haicheng2; Tang, Ruru1; Li, Guofa3; Bie, Yiming4; Xu, Chengzhong2
2023-08
Conference NameCICTP 2023: Innovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation
Source PublicationProceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals
Pages1592-1604
Conference Date2023/07/14-2023/07/17
Conference PlaceBeijing
Abstract

Traffic crash data sets may contain anomalous observations (i.e., outliers) which do not share the same distribution with the other observations. Regarding the most popular methods in the domain of traffic safety analysis, that is, logit and probit models, their sensitivity to outliers may lead to biased estimates, which has not been widely discussed. This paper introduces a robust Bayesian regression approach, namely the robit model, which substitutes the link function of these thin-tailed distributions with a heavy-tailed student’s t-distribution to down-weight the impacts of outliers. Additionally, a sandwich algorithm based on the data augmentation algorithm is proposed to improve the estimation efficiency of posteriors. The model is tested with a data set of tunnel crashes. Estimation results show that the robit model is efficient and robust and outperforms the baselines. Results also reveal that nine variables, that is, night, speeding, and fatigue driving, have significant effects on the severity of tunnel crashes.

DOI10.1061/9780784484869.152
URLView the original
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85174059694
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Citation statistics
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Faculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorLi, Zhenning
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Macau, Macao
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Dept. of Computer and Information Science, Univ. of Macau, Macao
3.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing Univ., Chongqing, China
4.School of Transportation, Jilin Univ., Changchun, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Zhenning,Liao, Haicheng,Tang, Ruru,et al. An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling[C], 2023, 1592-1604.
APA Li, Zhenning., Liao, Haicheng., Tang, Ruru., Li, Guofa., Bie, Yiming., & Xu, Chengzhong (2023). An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling. Proceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals, 1592-1604.
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