Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling | |
Li, Zhenning1; Liao, Haicheng2; Tang, Ruru1; Li, Guofa3; Bie, Yiming4; Xu, Chengzhong2 | |
2023-08 | |
Conference Name | CICTP 2023: Innovation-Empowered Technology for Sustainable, Intelligent, Decarbonized, and Connected Transportation |
Source Publication | Proceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals |
Pages | 1592-1604 |
Conference Date | 2023/07/14-2023/07/17 |
Conference Place | Beijing |
Abstract | Traffic crash data sets may contain anomalous observations (i.e., outliers) which do not share the same distribution with the other observations. Regarding the most popular methods in the domain of traffic safety analysis, that is, logit and probit models, their sensitivity to outliers may lead to biased estimates, which has not been widely discussed. This paper introduces a robust Bayesian regression approach, namely the robit model, which substitutes the link function of these thin-tailed distributions with a heavy-tailed student’s t-distribution to down-weight the impacts of outliers. Additionally, a sandwich algorithm based on the data augmentation algorithm is proposed to improve the estimation efficiency of posteriors. The model is tested with a data set of tunnel crashes. Estimation results show that the robit model is efficient and robust and outperforms the baselines. Results also reveal that nine variables, that is, night, speeding, and fatigue driving, have significant effects on the severity of tunnel crashes. |
DOI | 10.1061/9780784484869.152 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85174059694 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Conference paper |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING Faculty of Science and Technology THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU) INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE |
Corresponding Author | Li, Zhenning |
Affiliation | 1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Macau, Macao 2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Dept. of Computer and Information Science, Univ. of Macau, Macao 3.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Chongqing Univ., Chongqing, China 4.School of Transportation, Jilin Univ., Changchun, China |
First Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Li, Zhenning,Liao, Haicheng,Tang, Ruru,et al. An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling[C], 2023, 1592-1604. |
APA | Li, Zhenning., Liao, Haicheng., Tang, Ruru., Li, Guofa., Bie, Yiming., & Xu, Chengzhong (2023). An Efficient Bayesian Robit Model for Traffic Safety Modeling. Proceedings of the 23rd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals, 1592-1604. |
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