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Accuracy improvement of the load forecasting in the district heating system by the informer-based framework with the optimal step size selection
Zhang, Ji1,2; Hu, Yuxin1; Yuan, Yonggong1,3; Yuan, Han1; Mei, Ning1
2024-03-15
Source PublicationEnergy
ISSN0360-5442
Volume291Pages:130347
Abstract

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for effectively regulating regional heat network systems. However, existing forecasting methods often rely on subjective experience to determine the forecasting step, which is limited by the presence of thermal inertia, leading to suboptimal accuracy. To address this limitation, an optimal step size selection method based on the Informer-based framework is proposed to enhance load forecasting accuracy in heat exchange stations. This method leverages the Attention mechanism within the Informer model, enabling the capture of global information in a single step. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, real operational data from a typical thermal power plant in North China is utilized to analyze and test the impact of data distribution and prediction step size on the model's prediction capability. The performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Comparative analysis against Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models demonstrates that the Informer algorithm with optimal prediction step size achieves the highest prediction accuracy. Notably, the proposed method achieved a minimum reduction of 62.7 %, 46.5 %, and 42.9 % in MSE, MAE, and MAPE, respectively, significantly surpassing the performance of alternative prediction methods.

KeywordDistrict Heating System Informer-based Framework Intelligent Heating Load Forecasting Optimal Step Selection
DOI10.1016/j.energy.2024.130347
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaThermodynamic ; Energy & Fuels
WOS SubjectThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS IDWOS:001164808500001
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTDTHE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85182886056
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Ji
Affiliation1.Power Engineering, College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China
2.Smart Energy, The State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, 999078, China
3.Qingdao Shunan Thermal Power Co. Ltd, Qingdao, 266100, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Ji,Hu, Yuxin,Yuan, Yonggong,et al. Accuracy improvement of the load forecasting in the district heating system by the informer-based framework with the optimal step size selection[J]. Energy, 2024, 291, 130347.
APA Zhang, Ji., Hu, Yuxin., Yuan, Yonggong., Yuan, Han., & Mei, Ning (2024). Accuracy improvement of the load forecasting in the district heating system by the informer-based framework with the optimal step size selection. Energy, 291, 130347.
MLA Zhang, Ji,et al."Accuracy improvement of the load forecasting in the district heating system by the informer-based framework with the optimal step size selection".Energy 291(2024):130347.
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