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Spatial-Temporal Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Time-Aware Graph Convolutional Network
Tang, Jingwei1; Liu, Zhi1,2; Hu, Jianming3,4
2024-07
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
ISSN1949-3029
Volume15Issue:3Pages:1946-1956
Abstract

Spatial-temporal wind power prediction is of enormous importance to the grid-connected operation of multiple wind farms in the wind power system. However, most of the conventional methods are usually limited to predicting an individual wind farm's power, and thus lack enough effectiveness of wind power forecasting of multiple adjacent wind farms. This paper proposes a novel spatial-temporal wind power probabilistic prediction approach, named ZF-GCN-MHTQF, based on time zigzags and flexible convolution at graph convolutional network, point-wise loss function and the heavy-tailed quantile function. The proposed framework combines the advantages of time zigzags and flexible convolution at graph convolutional networks that can extract temporally conditioned topological information from multiple wind farms efficiently and incorporate the extracted topological information to predict wind power. At the same time, the proposed method incorporates the strengths of point-wise loss functions and heavy-tailed quantile functions which can effectively tackle the problem of the traditional multi-quantile regression and accurately capture the full conditional distribution information of wind power. In our experiments, two real-world wind power datasets from Australia are utilized to validate the proposed model. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method compared to the state-of-the-art spatial-temporal models.

KeywordTime Zigzag Flexible Convolution Graph Convolutional Network Heavy-tail Quantile Function
DOI10.1109/TSTE.2024.3389023
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:001252808200015
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85190723514
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
Corresponding AuthorHu, Jianming
Affiliation1.Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau 999078, China
2.Zhuhai-UM Science and Technology Research Institute, Zhuhai 519031, China
3.College of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
4.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tang, Jingwei,Liu, Zhi,Hu, Jianming. Spatial-Temporal Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Time-Aware Graph Convolutional Network[J]. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2024, 15(3), 1946-1956.
APA Tang, Jingwei., Liu, Zhi., & Hu, Jianming (2024). Spatial-Temporal Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Time-Aware Graph Convolutional Network. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 15(3), 1946-1956.
MLA Tang, Jingwei,et al."Spatial-Temporal Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Time-Aware Graph Convolutional Network".IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 15.3(2024):1946-1956.
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