We combined long-term observational data from 1999 to 2021 with numerical simulations to study the seasonal changes in the currents along the continental shelf in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter and how these changes relate to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results indicate that during El Niño events, the eastward movement of the warm pool in the tropical Pacific Ocean not only leads to colder sea surface temperatures and a stronger Kuroshio current intrusion but also significantly affects the formation of a high-pressure system in the subtropics over the NSCS. In El Niño years, an anomalous anticyclonic wind stress curl in the South China Sea weakens the northeast winter monsoon, which in turn weakens the cyclonic shelf circulation. The first principal component from the multivariate empirical orthogonal function decomposition, which accounts for 49.02% of the total variance, shows a significant correlation of 0.64 with the Niño 3.4 index, indicating the circulation's sensitivity to tropical climate changes. Our analysis of the winter shelf circulation, based on the along-isobath depth-integrated vorticity equation, reveals that the exchange of water across the isobaths over the shelf is mainly controlled by the nonlinear advection of relative vorticity, with wind stress curl and bottom stress curl playing a less significant role in regulating the structure of these exchanges. The combined effect of baroclinic forces and topography likely governs the dynamics over the slope.

Plain Language Summary

This comprehensive study, using 22 years of observational data andadvanced numerical models, investigates the interannual fluctuations in ocean currents along the continentalshelf of the Northern South China Sea during winter. The research uncovers that El Niño events significantlyinfluence the tropical Pacific's warm water pool, leading to a drop in sea surface temperatures and a subsequentstrengthening of the westward Kuroshio Current's penetration into the South China Sea. This phenomenontriggers an anomalous anticyclonic wind stress curl, which in turn weakens the northeasterly winter monsoonand the downwelling shelf circulation. By employing momentum equations, the study elucidates the dynamicsof these current changes, particularly the cross‐shelf water exchanges. The findings indicate that pressuregradient forces are the primary drivers of these exchanges, with wind forces playing a supportive role.Furthermore, the research highlights the critical role of wind and bottom pressure differences in shaping thecurrent distribution across the shelf. It underscores the significance of the combined effects of baroclinic andtopographic influences, stemming from waters of diverse origins, in comprehending cross‐slope water transport.This insight is important for understanding the broader implications on ocean circulation and the health ofmarine ecosystems in the region.