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A hidden semi-Markov model for chart pattern matching in financial time series
Yuqing Wan; Yain-Whar Si
2018-10
Source PublicationSoft Computing
ISSN1432-7643
Volume22Issue:19Pages:6525-6544
Abstract

Many pattern matching approaches have been applied in financial time series to detect chart patterns and predict price trends. In this paper, we propose an extended hidden semi-Markov model for chart pattern matching (HSMM-CP). In our approach, a hidden semi-Markov model is trained and a Viterbi algorithm is used to detect chart patterns. The proposed approach not only simplifies the traditional way of training an HSMM, but also reduces potential biases in parameter initialisation. We compare the proposed model with current approaches on a set of templates selected from 53 chart patterns. Experiments on a synthetic dataset show that the proposed approach has the highest average accuracy and recall among other pattern matching approaches. Specifically, the HSMM-CP approach achieves highest accuracy for Triangles, Ascending, Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Triple Tops and Cup with Handle patterns. Moreover, experiments results show that the HSMM-CP performs significantly better than other approaches in distinguishing patterns with similar shapes such as Head-and-Shoulders Tops and Triple Tops. Experiments are also conducted on a real dataset comprising the historical prices of several stocks.

KeywordPattern Matching Hidden Semi-markov Model Chart Patterns Financial Time Series
DOI10.1007/s00500-017-2703-7
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000444010500017
PublisherSPRINGER
The Source to ArticleWOS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85022207096
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorYain-Whar Si
AffiliationDepartment of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yuqing Wan,Yain-Whar Si. A hidden semi-Markov model for chart pattern matching in financial time series[J]. Soft Computing, 2018, 22(19), 6525-6544.
APA Yuqing Wan., & Yain-Whar Si (2018). A hidden semi-Markov model for chart pattern matching in financial time series. Soft Computing, 22(19), 6525-6544.
MLA Yuqing Wan,et al."A hidden semi-Markov model for chart pattern matching in financial time series".Soft Computing 22.19(2018):6525-6544.
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