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Trend following algorithms in automated derivatives market trading
Simon Fong; Yain-Whar Si; Jackie Tai
2012-04-06
Source PublicationExpert Systems with Applications
ABS Journal Level1
ISSN0957-4174
Volume39Issue:13Pages:11378-11390
Abstract

Trend following (TF) is trading philosophy by which buying/selling decisions are made solely according to the observed market trend. For many years, many manifestations of TF such as a software program called Turtle Trader, for example, emerged in the industry. Surprisingly little has been studied in academic research about its algorithms and applications. Unlike financial forecasting, TF does not predict any market movement; instead it identifies a trend at early time of the day, and trades automatically afterwards by a pre-defined strategy regardless of the moving market directions during run time. Trend following trading has been popular among speculators. However it remains as a trading method where human judgment is applied in setting the rules (aka the strategy) manually. Subsequently the TF strategy is executed in pure objective operational manner. Finding the correct strategy at the beginning is crucial in TF. This usually involves human intervention in first identifying a trend, and configuring when to place an order and close it out, when certain conditions are met. In this paper, we evaluated and compared a collection of TF algorithms that can be programmed in a computer system for automated trading. In particular, a new version of TF called trend recalling model is presented. It works by partially matching the current market trend with one of the proven successful patterns from the past. Our experiments based on real stock market data show that this method has an edge over the other trend following methods in profitability. The results show that TF however is still limited by market fluctuation (volatility), and the ability to identify trend signal. 

KeywordTrend Following Automated Trading System Futures Contracts Mechanical Trading
DOI10.1016/j.eswa.2012.03.048
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science ; Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS IDWOS:000305204600006
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84861341466
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorSimon Fong
AffiliationDepartment of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Simon Fong,Yain-Whar Si,Jackie Tai. Trend following algorithms in automated derivatives market trading[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(13), 11378-11390.
APA Simon Fong., Yain-Whar Si., & Jackie Tai (2012). Trend following algorithms in automated derivatives market trading. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(13), 11378-11390.
MLA Simon Fong,et al."Trend following algorithms in automated derivatives market trading".Expert Systems with Applications 39.13(2012):11378-11390.
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