Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty | |
Tam,Pui Sun | |
2018-07-27 | |
Source Publication | Applied Economics |
ABS Journal Level | 2 |
ISSN | 14664283 00036846 |
Volume | 50Issue:34-35Pages:3718-3734 |
Abstract | This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth. |
Keyword | Economic Policy Uncertainty Global Vector Autoregression Trade Value-added |
DOI | 10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
WOS ID | WOS:000433012800007 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85041910909 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS |
Corresponding Author | Tam,Pui Sun |
Affiliation | Department of Finance and Business Economics,Faculty of Business Administration,University of Macau,,Taipa,Macao |
First Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Tam,Pui Sun. Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty[J]. Applied Economics, 2018, 50(34-35), 3718-3734. |
APA | Tam,Pui Sun.(2018). Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty. Applied Economics, 50(34-35), 3718-3734. |
MLA | Tam,Pui Sun."Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty".Applied Economics 50.34-35(2018):3718-3734. |
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