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Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model
Ko, Stanley I. M.1; Chong, Terence T. L.2; Ghosh, Pulak3
2015
Source PublicationBayesian Analysis
ISSN1931-6690
Volume10Issue:2Pages:275–296
Abstract

This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our model is robust to model specification in contrast to the fully parametric Bayesian model. We propose a general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which only needs to sample the states around change-points. Simulations for a normal mean-shift model with known and unknown variance demonstrate advantages of our approach. Two applications, namely the coal-mining disaster data and the real United States Gross Domestic Product growth, are provided. We detect a single change-point for both the disaster data and US GDP growth. All the change-point locations and posterior inferences of the two applications are in line with existing methods.

KeywordNonparametric Bayesian Change-point Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model Markov Chain Monte Carlo
DOI10.1214/14-BA910
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaMathematics
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS IDWOS:000358997900002
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84924863345
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS
Affiliation1.Department of Finance and Business Economics, University of Macau, Macau
2.Department of Economics and Institute of Global Economics and Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, and Department of International Economics and Trade, Nanjing University, China
3.Department of Quantitative Methods & Information Systems, Indian Institute of Management at Bangalore, India
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ko, Stanley I. M.,Chong, Terence T. L.,Ghosh, Pulak. Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model[J]. Bayesian Analysis, 2015, 10(2), 275–296.
APA Ko, Stanley I. M.., Chong, Terence T. L.., & Ghosh, Pulak (2015). Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model. Bayesian Analysis, 10(2), 275–296.
MLA Ko, Stanley I. M.,et al."Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model".Bayesian Analysis 10.2(2015):275–296.
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