Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach | |
Kaijian He1; Kin Keung Lai2; Jerome Yen3 | |
2011 | |
Source Publication | ENERGY ECONOMICS |
ABS Journal Level | 3 |
ISSN | 0140-9883 |
Volume | 33Issue:5Pages:903-911 |
Abstract | With the increasing level of volatility in the crude oil market, the transient data feature becomes more prevalent in the market and is no longer ignorable during the risk measurement process. Since there are multiple representations for these transient data features using a set of bases available, the sparsity measure based Morphological Component Analysis (MCA) model is proposed in this paper to find the optimal combinations of representations to model these transient data features. Therefore, this paper proposes a MCA based hybrid methodology for analyzing and forecasting the risk evolution in the crude oil market. The underlying transient data components with distinct behaviors are extracted and analyzed using MCA model. The proposed algorithm incorporates these transient data features to adjust for conservative risk estimates from traditional approach based on normal market condition during its risk measurement process. The reliability and stability of Value at Risk (VaR) estimated improve as a result of finer modeling procedure in the multi frequency and time domain while maintaining competent accuracy level, as supported by empirical studies in the representative West Taxes Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil market. |
Keyword | Crude Oil Value At Risk Morphological Component Analysis |
DOI | 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.01.007 |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics |
WOS Subject | Economics |
WOS ID | WOS:000295301600021 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-80052186102 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Business Administration Faculty of Science and Technology DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION |
Corresponding Author | Kin Keung Lai |
Affiliation | 1.Business School, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan, 411201, China 2.Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong 3.Department of Finance and Economics, Tung Wah College, Wylie Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Kaijian He,Kin Keung Lai,Jerome Yen. Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2011, 33(5), 903-911. |
APA | Kaijian He., Kin Keung Lai., & Jerome Yen (2011). Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 33(5), 903-911. |
MLA | Kaijian He,et al."Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach".ENERGY ECONOMICS 33.5(2011):903-911. |
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