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Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach
Kaijian He1; Kin Keung Lai2; Jerome Yen3
2011
Source PublicationENERGY ECONOMICS
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0140-9883
Volume33Issue:5Pages:903-911
Abstract

With the increasing level of volatility in the crude oil market, the transient data feature becomes more prevalent in the market and is no longer ignorable during the risk measurement process. Since there are multiple representations for these transient data features using a set of bases available, the sparsity measure based Morphological Component Analysis (MCA) model is proposed in this paper to find the optimal combinations of representations to model these transient data features. Therefore, this paper proposes a MCA based hybrid methodology for analyzing and forecasting the risk evolution in the crude oil market. The underlying transient data components with distinct behaviors are extracted and analyzed using MCA model. The proposed algorithm incorporates these transient data features to adjust for conservative risk estimates from traditional approach based on normal market condition during its risk measurement process. The reliability and stability of Value at Risk (VaR) estimated improve as a result of finer modeling procedure in the multi frequency and time domain while maintaining competent accuracy level, as supported by empirical studies in the representative West Taxes Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil market.

KeywordCrude Oil Value At Risk Morphological Component Analysis
DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2011.01.007
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000295301600021
Scopus ID2-s2.0-80052186102
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
Faculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION
Corresponding AuthorKin Keung Lai
Affiliation1.Business School, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan, 411201, China
2.Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong
3.Department of Finance and Economics, Tung Wah College, Wylie Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Kaijian He,Kin Keung Lai,Jerome Yen. Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2011, 33(5), 903-911.
APA Kaijian He., Kin Keung Lai., & Jerome Yen (2011). Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 33(5), 903-911.
MLA Kaijian He,et al."Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach".ENERGY ECONOMICS 33.5(2011):903-911.
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