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An ICA-MDN Based Multi-stage Model for portfolio Value-at-Risk Analysis
Xiaoliang Che1; Kin Keung Lai1; Jerome Yen2
2010
Conference Name2010 Third International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering
Source PublicationProceedings of the Third International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering
Conference Date13-15 Aug. 2010
Conference PlaceHong Kong, China
Abstract

For portfolio value-at-risk analysis, a novel approach is proposed based on Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Mixture Density Network (MDN). Specifically, the original data is first transformed into separate signals which are independent from each other through ICA. Then using MDN their conditional density functions are fitted, from which the joint distribution function of the multivariate time series could be derived. Finally VaR estimates are calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation. This method successfully circumvents the difficult correlation issue within multivariate time analysis and it achieves superior performance compared to traditional EWMA and MVGARCH techniques in empirical study.

KeywordPortfolio Var Monte Carlo Mdn Ica
DOI10.1109/BIFE.2010.59
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-78650184939
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
Faculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Affiliation1.Department of Management SciencesCity University of Hong KongKowloon, Hong Kong
2.Department of Finance and EconomicsTung Wah CollegeKowloon, Hong Kon
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xiaoliang Che,Kin Keung Lai,Jerome Yen. An ICA-MDN Based Multi-stage Model for portfolio Value-at-Risk Analysis[C], 2010.
APA Xiaoliang Che., Kin Keung Lai., & Jerome Yen (2010). An ICA-MDN Based Multi-stage Model for portfolio Value-at-Risk Analysis. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering.
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