Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model | |
Zhao,Changfei1; Wan,Can2; Song,Yonghua3 | |
2021-07 | |
Source Publication | IEEE Transactions on Power Systems |
ISSN | 0885-8950 |
Volume | 36Issue:4Pages:3701-3714 |
Abstract | Adequate operating reserves are urgently needed to hedge against wind power forecasting uncertainties in power systems. Traditional reserve quantification sequentially acquires statistical features of wind power and then determines reserve amounts. This paper establishes a novel integrated probabilistic forecasting and decision (IPFD) model to simultaneously optimize the wind power prediction intervals (PIs) and probabilistic reserve quantification. Upward and downward reserve quantities are defined to cover the wind power forecasting uncertainties within the PIs. A cost function evaluating the reserve provision payment and deficit penalty is elaborated to realize cost-benefit trade-offs of reserve decision. Nonparametric wind power PIs are constructed based on extreme learning machine, which minimizes the reserve cost function subject to eligible target coverage probability. The confidence level and quantile proportions associated with wind power PIs can be jointly tuned to reduce the operational cost of reserves. Benefited from extreme learning machine, the IPFD model is reformulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem. A feasible region tightening strategy that shrinks large constant coefficients and eliminates redundant binary variables is proposed to accelerate model training. Numerical experiments based on actual wind power data demonstrate remarkable cost-efficiency advantages of the IPFD based reserve quantification, as well as the high computational efficiency for online application. |
Keyword | Probabilistic Forecasting Wind Power Machine Learning Operating Reserve Prediction Interval Mixed Integer Linear Programming |
DOI | 10.1109/TPWRS.2021.3053847 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Engineering |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Electrical & Electronic |
WOS ID | WOS:000664032400079 |
Publisher | EEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85100496991 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU) |
Corresponding Author | Wan,Can |
Affiliation | 1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, 310027 (e-mail: [email protected]) 2.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, (e-mail: [email protected]) 3.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, 59193 Taipa, Macau SAR, Macao, (e-mail: [email protected]) |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhao,Changfei,Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua. Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2021, 36(4), 3701-3714. |
APA | Zhao,Changfei., Wan,Can., & Song,Yonghua (2021). Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 36(4), 3701-3714. |
MLA | Zhao,Changfei,et al."Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36.4(2021):3701-3714. |
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