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Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model
Zhao,Changfei1; Wan,Can2; Song,Yonghua3
2021-07
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume36Issue:4Pages:3701-3714
Abstract

Adequate operating reserves are urgently needed to hedge against wind power forecasting uncertainties in power systems. Traditional reserve quantification sequentially acquires statistical features of wind power and then determines reserve amounts. This paper establishes a novel integrated probabilistic forecasting and decision (IPFD) model to simultaneously optimize the wind power prediction intervals (PIs) and probabilistic reserve quantification. Upward and downward reserve quantities are defined to cover the wind power forecasting uncertainties within the PIs. A cost function evaluating the reserve provision payment and deficit penalty is elaborated to realize cost-benefit trade-offs of reserve decision. Nonparametric wind power PIs are constructed based on extreme learning machine, which minimizes the reserve cost function subject to eligible target coverage probability. The confidence level and quantile proportions associated with wind power PIs can be jointly tuned to reduce the operational cost of reserves. Benefited from extreme learning machine, the IPFD model is reformulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem. A feasible region tightening strategy that shrinks large constant coefficients and eliminates redundant binary variables is proposed to accelerate model training. Numerical experiments based on actual wind power data demonstrate remarkable cost-efficiency advantages of the IPFD based reserve quantification, as well as the high computational efficiency for online application.

KeywordProbabilistic Forecasting Wind Power Machine Learning Operating Reserve Prediction Interval Mixed Integer Linear Programming
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2021.3053847
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000664032400079
PublisherEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85100496991
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorWan,Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, 310027 (e-mail: [email protected])
2.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, (e-mail: [email protected])
3.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, 59193 Taipa, Macau SAR, Macao, (e-mail: [email protected])
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao,Changfei,Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua. Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2021, 36(4), 3701-3714.
APA Zhao,Changfei., Wan,Can., & Song,Yonghua (2021). Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 36(4), 3701-3714.
MLA Zhao,Changfei,et al."Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Model".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36.4(2021):3701-3714.
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