Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load | |
Zhao,Changfei1; Wan,Can1; Song,Yonghua1,2; Cao,Zhaojing1 | |
2020-05 | |
Source Publication | IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS |
ISSN | 0885-8950 |
Volume | 35Issue:3Pages:2467-2470 |
Abstract | A novel machine learning based mixed integer programming model is developed for the optimal nonparametric prediction intervals (PIs) of electricity load, which minimizes interval width subject to target hit probability constraint. Binary variables are employed to analytically formulate PI coverage states and further impose calibration constraint. Considering the quantile interpretation on lower and upper bounds of PIs, an innovative binary variable reduction strategy is proposed to significantly accelerate model training process. Compared with traditional central PIs, the resultant optimal nonparametric PIs are featured with adaptive symmetric and asymmetric quantile proportion pairs for interval shortening. Numerical experiments based on actual substation data validate the remarkable superiority of the presented method with respect to both PI quality and computational efficiency. |
Keyword | Prediction Interval Load Forecasting Machine Learning Mixed Integer Programming Binary Variable Reduction |
DOI | 10.1109/TPWRS.2020.2965799 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Engineering |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Electrical & Electronic |
WOS ID | WOS:000529523600067 |
Publisher | IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85083817461 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING |
Corresponding Author | Wan,Can |
Affiliation | 1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310027,China 2.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,University of Macau,310027,Macao |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhao,Changfei,Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua,et al. Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2020, 35(3), 2467-2470. |
APA | Zhao,Changfei., Wan,Can., Song,Yonghua., & Cao,Zhaojing (2020). Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 35(3), 2467-2470. |
MLA | Zhao,Changfei,et al."Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 35.3(2020):2467-2470. |
Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. |
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment