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Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load
Zhao,Changfei1; Wan,Can1; Song,Yonghua1,2; Cao,Zhaojing1
2020-05
Source PublicationIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
ISSN0885-8950
Volume35Issue:3Pages:2467-2470
Abstract

A novel machine learning based mixed integer programming model is developed for the optimal nonparametric prediction intervals (PIs) of electricity load, which minimizes interval width subject to target hit probability constraint. Binary variables are employed to analytically formulate PI coverage states and further impose calibration constraint. Considering the quantile interpretation on lower and upper bounds of PIs, an innovative binary variable reduction strategy is proposed to significantly accelerate model training process. Compared with traditional central PIs, the resultant optimal nonparametric PIs are featured with adaptive symmetric and asymmetric quantile proportion pairs for interval shortening. Numerical experiments based on actual substation data validate the remarkable superiority of the presented method with respect to both PI quality and computational efficiency.

KeywordPrediction Interval Load Forecasting Machine Learning Mixed Integer Programming Binary Variable Reduction
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2020.2965799
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000529523600067
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85083817461
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorWan,Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310027,China
2.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,University of Macau,310027,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao,Changfei,Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua,et al. Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2020, 35(3), 2467-2470.
APA Zhao,Changfei., Wan,Can., Song,Yonghua., & Cao,Zhaojing (2020). Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 35(3), 2467-2470.
MLA Zhao,Changfei,et al."Optimal Nonparametric Prediction Intervals of Electricity Load".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 35.3(2020):2467-2470.
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