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Hybrid Ensemble Deep Learning for Deterministic and Probabilistic Low-Voltage Load Forecasting
Cao,Zhaojing1; Wan,Can1; Zhang,Zijun2; Li,Furong3; Song,Yonghua4
2020-05
Source PublicationIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS
ISSN0885-8950
Volume35Issue:3Pages:1881-1897
Abstract

Accurate and reliable low-voltage load forecasting is critical to optimal operation and control of distribution network and smart grid. However, compared to traditional regional load forecasting at high-voltage level, it faces tough challenges due to the inherent high uncertainty of the low-capacity load and distributed renewable energy integrated in the demand side. This paper proposes a novel hybrid ensemble deep learning (HEDL) approach for deterministic and probabilistic low-voltage load forecasting. The deep belief network (DBN) is applied to low-voltage load point prediction with the strong ability of approximating nonlinear mapping. A series of ensemble learning methods including bagging and boosting variants are introduced to improve the regression ability of DBN. In addition, the differencing transformation technique is utilized to ensure the stationarity of load time series for the application bagging and boosting methods. On the basis of the integrated thought of ensemble learning, a new hybrid ensemble algorithm is developed via integrating multiple separate ensemble methods. Considering the diversity in various ensemble algorithms, an effective K nearest neighbor classification method is utilized to adaptively determine the weights of sub-models. Furthermore, HEDL based probabilistic forecasting is proposed by taking advantage of the inherent resample idea in bagging and boosting. The effectiveness of the HEDL method for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting has been systematically verified based on realistic load data from East China and Australia, indicating its promising prospective for practical applications in distribution networks.

KeywordDeep Learning Ensemble Learning Forecasting k Nearest Neighbor Low-voltage Load
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2019.2946701
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000529523600018
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85083761978
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorWan,Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,China
2.Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management,City University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong
3.Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering,University of Bath,Bath,United Kingdom
4.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,University of Macau,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cao,Zhaojing,Wan,Can,Zhang,Zijun,et al. Hybrid Ensemble Deep Learning for Deterministic and Probabilistic Low-Voltage Load Forecasting[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2020, 35(3), 1881-1897.
APA Cao,Zhaojing., Wan,Can., Zhang,Zijun., Li,Furong., & Song,Yonghua (2020). Hybrid Ensemble Deep Learning for Deterministic and Probabilistic Low-Voltage Load Forecasting. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 35(3), 1881-1897.
MLA Cao,Zhaojing,et al."Hybrid Ensemble Deep Learning for Deterministic and Probabilistic Low-Voltage Load Forecasting".IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 35.3(2020):1881-1897.
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