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Practical model with strong interpretability and predictability: An explanatory model for individuals' destination prediction considering personal and crowd travel behavior
Zhao,Juanjuan1; Ye,Jiexia1; Xu,Minxian1; Xu,Chengzhong2
2020-12-23
Source PublicationCONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE
ISSN1532-0626
Volume35Issue:18Pages:e6151
Abstract

Real-time individuals' destination prediction is of great significance for real-time user tracking, service recommendation and other related applications. Traditional technology mainly used statistical methods based on the travel patterns mined from personal history travel data. However, it is not clear how to predict the destinations of individuals with only limited personal historical data. In this paper, taking the public transportation metro systems as example, we design a practical method called practical model with strong interpretability and predictability to predict each passenger's destination. Our main novelties are two aspects: (1) We propose to predict individuals' destination by combining personal and crowd behavior under certain context. (2) An explanatory model combining discrete choice model and neural network model is proposed to predict individuals' stochastic trip's destination, which can be applied to other transportation analysis scenarios about individuals' choice behavior such as travel mode choice or route choice. We validate our method based on extensive experiments, using smart card data collected by automatic fare collection system and weather data in Shenzhen, China. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can achieve better performance than other baselines in terms of prediction accuracy.

KeywordCrowd Behavior Discrete Choice Model Individual Destination Prediction Neural Network
DOI10.1002/cpe.6151
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Software Engineering ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods
WOS IDWOS:000603018700001
PublisherWILEY, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85097945124
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Faculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorXu,Minxian
Affiliation1.Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology,China Academic of Science,China
2.State Key Lab of IOTSC,Department of Computer Science,University of Macau,China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao,Juanjuan,Ye,Jiexia,Xu,Minxian,et al. Practical model with strong interpretability and predictability: An explanatory model for individuals' destination prediction considering personal and crowd travel behavior[J]. CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE, 2020, 35(18), e6151.
APA Zhao,Juanjuan., Ye,Jiexia., Xu,Minxian., & Xu,Chengzhong (2020). Practical model with strong interpretability and predictability: An explanatory model for individuals' destination prediction considering personal and crowd travel behavior. CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE, 35(18), e6151.
MLA Zhao,Juanjuan,et al."Practical model with strong interpretability and predictability: An explanatory model for individuals' destination prediction considering personal and crowd travel behavior".CONCURRENCY AND COMPUTATION-PRACTICE & EXPERIENCE 35.18(2020):e6151.
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