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新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用
Alternative TitleTheories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources
万灿1; 宋永华1,2
2021-01-10
Source Publication电力系统自动化
ISSN1000-1026
Volume45Issue:1Pages:2-16
Abstract

高比例新能源已成为中国电力系统发展的突出特征,间歇性新能源发电的不确定性给电力 系统安全与经济运行带来极大挑战。准确可靠的供需预测是新能源电力系统分析与运行控制的基 础,传统确定性预测难以消除预测误差,概率预测可实现对预测不确定性的有效量化,为电力系统 分析与运行控制提供关键信息支撑。文中对新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及应用进行了系 统综述:首先,从预测对象、时间尺度、概率预测形式、性能评价指标等方面介绍了新能源电力系统 概率预测的基本概念;其次,系统综述了新能源电力系统概率预测的基本理论与方法;然后,总结了 概率预测在新能源电力系统中的多场景应用;最后,对新能源电力系统概率预测存在的问题做了归 纳,并对其发展趋势进行了展望。

Other Abstract

High penetration of renewable energy has become a prominent feature of the development of power systems in China. The uncertainty of intermittent renewable energy generation brings great challenges to the safe and economic operation of power systems. Accurate and reliable supply and demand forecasting is the basis of the analysis, operation, and control of the power systems with renewable energy sources. However, the forecasting error is difficult to be eliminated through the traditional deterministic forecasting. Probabilistic forecasting can effectively quantify the forecasting uncertainty and provide key information to the analysis, operation, and control of power systems. This paper systematically reviews the theories, methodologies and applications of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources. Firstly, the basic concepts of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are introduced, including forecasting objects, time scales, probabilistic forecasting forms and performance evaluation indices. Secondly, the basic theories and methodologies of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are reviewed. Then the multi-scenario applications of probabilistic forecasting in the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized. Finally, the problems in the probabilistic forecasting of the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized and the development trend is prospected.

Keyword电力系统 可再生能源 概率预测 区间预测 不确定性 人工智能
DOI10.7500/AEPS20200811008
URLView the original
Indexed By核心期刊 ; EI ; CSCD
Language中文Chinese
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85099465559
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Faculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding Author万灿
Affiliation1.浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市
2.智慧城市物联网国家重点实验室(澳门大学),澳门
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
万灿,宋永华. 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2021, 45(1), 2-16.
APA 万灿., & 宋永华 (2021). 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用. 电力系统自动化, 45(1), 2-16.
MLA 万灿,et al."新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用".电力系统自动化 45.1(2021):2-16.
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