Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
A novel random fuzzy neural networks for tackling uncertainties of electric load forecasting | |
Lou C.W.; Dong M.C. | |
2015 | |
Source Publication | International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems |
ISSN | 1420615 |
Volume | 73Pages:34 |
Abstract | In this paper, fuzzy (inaccuracy, vague, dispersion of individual interpretation) and random (incompleteness, noise and variability) uncertainties of electric load forecasting are modeled by random fuzzy variables (RFVs). Further integrating it into neural networks (NN) to formulate a novel integrated technique-Random Fuzzy NN (RFNN) for load forecasting is presented. The features of this methodology are as follows. (1) It is able to effectively and simultaneously model referred uncertainties occurred in load forecasting by one integrated technique, which existing techniques (e.g. fuzzified NN or Bayesian NN) tackle them separately. (2) Specially, historical data/information containing incompleteness, inaccuracy and vagueness can be modeled by the proposed representations of RFVs. No preprocessing algorithms such as data imputation or discard are required. (3) The proposed RFNN can make NN incorporating both types of uncertainties of inputs and network parameters so as to possess with better tackling uncertainties of load forecasting than other relevant methods. The proposed techniques are applied to electric load forecasting using a real operational data collected from Macau electric utility. Its application is promising in microgrid/small power system or in forecasting curves of individual customer where load curves would present a much higher variability and more noise than global curves of power grid of one country/region. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. |
Keyword | Load Forecasting Random Fuzzy Neural Networks Random Fuzzy Variable Uncertainty |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ijepes.2015.03.003 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
WOS ID | WOS:000360771800005 |
The Source to Article | Scopus |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-84928138452 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Lou C.W.,Dong M.C.. A novel random fuzzy neural networks for tackling uncertainties of electric load forecasting[J]. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 2015, 73, 34. |
APA | Lou C.W.., & Dong M.C. (2015). A novel random fuzzy neural networks for tackling uncertainties of electric load forecasting. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 73, 34. |
MLA | Lou C.W.,et al."A novel random fuzzy neural networks for tackling uncertainties of electric load forecasting".International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 73(2015):34. |
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