Residential Collegefalse
Status已發表Published
An estimating combination method for interval forecasting of electrical load time series
Ma, Xuejiao1; Dong, Yunxuan2
2020-11-15
Source PublicationExpert Systems with Applications
ABS Journal Level1
ISSN0957-4174
Volume158
Abstract

Due to the failure of deterministic point forecasting to capture the uncertainty associated with the original time series, and because it can reflect the range of electrical load fluctuation, the importance of probabilistic interval forecasting has gradually increased. However, the existing theoretical system of interval forecasting is still incomplete, is a complicated process, and has relatively low accuracy. The objective of this study is to propose an interval forecasting approach based on feature selection, the optimized machine learning method, and correction of the Gaussian distribution. By applying this approach, the distribution of predictions can be established to include all the information of prediction intervals at each confidence level, making the best use of the known information. The electrical load time series of Australia are used to examine the effectiveness of the proposed approach, and compared with other models, it is proven to not only simplify the forecasting process and shorten the processing time, but also significantly improve the forecasting efficiency, flexibility, and accuracy.

KeywordDistribution Estimation Electrical Load Time Series Feature Selection Interval Forecasting Machine Learning Method
DOI10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113498
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science ; Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS IDWOS:000571421000003
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85084831030
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorDong, Yunxuan
Affiliation1.School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China
2.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, China
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ma, Xuejiao,Dong, Yunxuan. An estimating combination method for interval forecasting of electrical load time series[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2020, 158.
APA Ma, Xuejiao., & Dong, Yunxuan (2020). An estimating combination method for interval forecasting of electrical load time series. Expert Systems with Applications, 158.
MLA Ma, Xuejiao,et al."An estimating combination method for interval forecasting of electrical load time series".Expert Systems with Applications 158(2020).
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ma, Xuejiao]'s Articles
[Dong, Yunxuan]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Ma, Xuejiao]'s Articles
[Dong, Yunxuan]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Ma, Xuejiao]'s Articles
[Dong, Yunxuan]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.