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Electrical load forecasting: A deep learning approach based on K-nearest neighbors
Dong, Yunxuan1; Ma, Xuejiao2; Fu, Tonglin3
2021-02-01
Source PublicationApplied Soft Computing
ISSN1568-4946
Volume99Pages:106900
Abstract

Deep learning approaches have shown superior advantages than shallow techniques in the field of electrical load forecasting; however, their applications in existing studies encounter thorny issues despite their excellent forecasting performance: heavy computing costs due to complicated network structure and restricted to the deterministic point forecasting. This paper aims to solve above two problems by proposing a deep learning approach based on K-nearest neighbors to capture uncertainty and reflect the range of electrical load fluctuation. First, the K-nearest neighbors algorithm is applied to seek features of historical electrical load time series that are similar to the future values by calculating the distance between the training and testing datasets. Then the second generation of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm is adopted for multi-objective optimization to find out the smallest category number of K-nearest neighbors and the highest forecasting accuracy. Based on the forecasting results of the deep belief network, modified non-parameter kernel density estimation is used to obtain the prediction intervals. Five datasets collected from Australia are employed to examine the effectiveness of the proposed model. By a series of comparisons with other state-of-the-art models, experimental results confirm that the proposed interval forecasting model cannot only improve the forecasting efficiency and accuracy, but also simplify the forecasting process of deep learning approaches, which can provide great referential value for future work.

KeywordDeep Learning Approach Electrical Load Interval Forecasting K-nearest Neighbors Kernel Density Estimation
DOI10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106900
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000608174400006
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85096400599
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorMa, Xuejiao
Affiliation1.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, China
2.School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning, 116024, China
3.School of Mathematics & Statistics, LongDong University, Qingyang, Gansu, 745000, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Dong, Yunxuan,Ma, Xuejiao,Fu, Tonglin. Electrical load forecasting: A deep learning approach based on K-nearest neighbors[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2021, 99, 106900.
APA Dong, Yunxuan., Ma, Xuejiao., & Fu, Tonglin (2021). Electrical load forecasting: A deep learning approach based on K-nearest neighbors. Applied Soft Computing, 99, 106900.
MLA Dong, Yunxuan,et al."Electrical load forecasting: A deep learning approach based on K-nearest neighbors".Applied Soft Computing 99(2021):106900.
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