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An Adaptive Ensemble Data Driven Approach for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Load
Wan, Can1; Cao, Zhaojing1; Lee, Wei Jen2; Song, Yonghua3; Ju, Ping1
2021-11-01
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
ISSN1949-3053
Volume12Issue:6Pages:5396-5408
Abstract

Probabilistic load forecasting that provides uncertainty information involved in load forecasting is crucial for various decision-making tasks in power systems. This paper proposes a novel adaptive ensemble data driven (AEDD) approach for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of electricity load by mining the uncertainty distribution from the historical observations based on conditional historical dataset construction and adaptive weighted ensemble. The pertinent patterns similar to the forecasting condition are searched from the numerous historical observations. The similarity degree measurement method is established based on shared nearest neighbors. Moreover, the uncertainty degree of the predictive load is quantified via information entropy, and then the number of similar patterns is determined depending to its uncertainty degree. After obtaining the conditional historical dataset, an adaptive weighted ensemble method is proposed for estimating the uncertainty distribution more correctly, where the weight for each similar pattern is set based on its similarity degree with the predictive load. Comprehensive numerical studies based on realistic load data validate the superiority of the proposed AEDD method in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

KeywordForecasting Probabilistic Logic Uncertainty Predictive Models Load Forecasting Load Modeling Wind Power Generation Probabilistic Forecasting Load Forecasting Data Mining Uncertainty Information Entropy Weighted Resample
DOI10.1109/TSG.2021.3101672
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000709090100074
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC, 445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85112662854
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorWan, Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China
2.Energy Systems Research Center, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, 76019, United States
3.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wan, Can,Cao, Zhaojing,Lee, Wei Jen,et al. An Adaptive Ensemble Data Driven Approach for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Load[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2021, 12(6), 5396-5408.
APA Wan, Can., Cao, Zhaojing., Lee, Wei Jen., Song, Yonghua., & Ju, Ping (2021). An Adaptive Ensemble Data Driven Approach for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Load. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 12(6), 5396-5408.
MLA Wan, Can,et al."An Adaptive Ensemble Data Driven Approach for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Load".IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12.6(2021):5396-5408.
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