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Interpretable Temporal Attention Network for COVID-19 forecasting
Zhou, Binggui1,2; Yang, Guanghua1; Shi, Zheng1,2; Ma, Shaodan2
2022-05
Source PublicationApplied Soft Computing
ISSN1568-4946
Volume120Pages:108691
Abstract

The worldwide outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has triggered an unprecedented global health and economic crisis. Early and accurate forecasts of COVID-19 and evaluation of government interventions are crucial for governments to take appropriate interventions to contain the spread of COVID-19. In this work, we propose the Interpretable Temporal Attention Network (ITANet) for COVID-19 forecasting and inferring the importance of government interventions. The proposed model is with an encoder–decoder architecture and employs long short-term memory (LSTM) for temporal feature extraction and multi-head attention for long-term dependency caption. The model simultaneously takes historical information, a priori known future information, and pseudo future information into consideration, where the pseudo future information is learned with the covariate forecasting network (CFN) and multi-task learning (MTL). In addition, we also propose the degraded teacher forcing (DTF) method to train the model efficiently. Compared with other models, the ITANet is more effective in the forecasting of COVID-19 new confirmed cases. The importance of government interventions against COVID-19 is further inferred by the Temporal Covariate Interpreter (TCI) of the model.

KeywordCovariate Forecasting Covid-19 Forecasting Degraded Teacher Forcing Multi-task Learning Neural Network
DOI10.1016/j.asoc.2022.108691
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000821070000016
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85126353485
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorYang, Guanghua
Affiliation1.School of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Jinan University, Zhuhai, 519070, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhou, Binggui,Yang, Guanghua,Shi, Zheng,et al. Interpretable Temporal Attention Network for COVID-19 forecasting[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2022, 120, 108691.
APA Zhou, Binggui., Yang, Guanghua., Shi, Zheng., & Ma, Shaodan (2022). Interpretable Temporal Attention Network for COVID-19 forecasting. Applied Soft Computing, 120, 108691.
MLA Zhou, Binggui,et al."Interpretable Temporal Attention Network for COVID-19 forecasting".Applied Soft Computing 120(2022):108691.
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