Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Prediction of risk: Decoding the Serial Dependence of Stock Return Volatility with Copula | |
Zhu, Liang1; Lim, Christine2; Zhang, Jianlun2 | |
2021-01 | |
Source Publication | Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research |
ABS Journal Level | 2 |
ISSN | 1096-3480 |
Volume | 45Issue:1Pages:6-27 |
Abstract | In this article, a new approach based on the copula theory is employed in the analysis and forecasting of hospitality and tourism-related stock return volatility (HTSRV). The application of copula-based models for univariate time series is state-of the-art methodologies with new perspectives for economic analysis in tourism and hospitality. This flexible method provides numerous functions for serial dependence specification of volatility series. Eight hospitality–tourism stocks are analyzed for their serial dependence structures to provide insight for forecasting stock return volatility. While the forecasting performance between our chosen copulas and benchmark models is inconclusive, the empirical results show that copulas well specify both linear and nonlinear serial dependence structures, which lead to forecasting results as good as or even better than those of the benchmark models. This property allows us to use copulas for HTSRV forecasting without the concern of model misspecification. |
Keyword | Copula-based Model Hospitality And Tourism-related Stock Return Volatility Risk Prediction Serial Dependence |
DOI | 10.1177/1096348020919490 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
WOS Subject | Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism |
WOS ID | WOS:000537803000001 |
Publisher | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85085927952 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF INTEGRATED RESORT AND TOURISM MANAGEMENT |
Corresponding Author | Zhu, Liang |
Affiliation | 1.Shenzhen University, China 2.University of Macau, Macao |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Liang,Lim, Christine,Zhang, Jianlun. Prediction of risk: Decoding the Serial Dependence of Stock Return Volatility with Copula[J]. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research, 2021, 45(1), 6-27. |
APA | Zhu, Liang., Lim, Christine., & Zhang, Jianlun (2021). Prediction of risk: Decoding the Serial Dependence of Stock Return Volatility with Copula. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research, 45(1), 6-27. |
MLA | Zhu, Liang,et al."Prediction of risk: Decoding the Serial Dependence of Stock Return Volatility with Copula".Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research 45.1(2021):6-27. |
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