Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach | |
Rockie U Kei Kuok1,2; Tay T. R. Koo2; Christine Lim1 | |
2023-03 | |
Source Publication | Journal of Travel Research |
ABS Journal Level | 4 |
ISSN | 0047-2875 |
Volume | 62Issue:3Pages:540-562 |
Abstract | In a globalized environment, a major shock or event can reverberate across tourism interdependent countries over time. This paper aims to empirically examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) emanating from a large country may influence inbound and outbound tourism in other countries. Using Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model and two alternative measures of EPU, the study finds the modeled effects of EPU are dependent on the source of EPU measures, level of internationalization, and type of trade-weights used. Notably, the results show the “decline-rebound-overshoot” effect of EPU shock on tourism demand, and capture the link between capital flight and outbound travel from China in times of surge in EPU. This research highlights that GVAR is able to capture previously unobserved empirical insights because assessing the international impact of shocks such as economic crises, pandemics, and political instability necessitates accounting for cross-sectional interdependence in tourism flows between many countries. |
Keyword | China Economic Policy Uncertainty (Epu) Global Vector Autoregressive (Gvar) Model Globalization Interdependence Tourism Demand |
DOI | 10.1177/00472875211072551 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
WOS Subject | Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism |
WOS ID | WOS:000760385900001 |
Publisher | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85128499167 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF INTEGRATED RESORT AND TOURISM MANAGEMENT |
Affiliation | 1.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao 2.School of Aviation, Faculty of Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia |
First Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Rockie U Kei Kuok,Tay T. R. Koo,Christine Lim. Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2023, 62(3), 540-562. |
APA | Rockie U Kei Kuok., Tay T. R. Koo., & Christine Lim (2023). Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach. Journal of Travel Research, 62(3), 540-562. |
MLA | Rockie U Kei Kuok,et al."Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach".Journal of Travel Research 62.3(2023):540-562. |
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