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Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach
Rockie U Kei Kuok1,2; Tay T. R. Koo2; Christine Lim1
2023-03
Source PublicationJournal of Travel Research
ABS Journal Level4
ISSN0047-2875
Volume62Issue:3Pages:540-562
Abstract

In a globalized environment, a major shock or event can reverberate across tourism interdependent countries over time. This paper aims to empirically examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) emanating from a large country may influence inbound and outbound tourism in other countries. Using Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model and two alternative measures of EPU, the study finds the modeled effects of EPU are dependent on the source of EPU measures, level of internationalization, and type of trade-weights used. Notably, the results show the “decline-rebound-overshoot” effect of EPU shock on tourism demand, and capture the link between capital flight and outbound travel from China in times of surge in EPU. This research highlights that GVAR is able to capture previously unobserved empirical insights because assessing the international impact of shocks such as economic crises, pandemics, and political instability necessitates accounting for cross-sectional interdependence in tourism flows between many countries.

KeywordChina Economic Policy Uncertainty (Epu) Global Vector Autoregressive (Gvar) Model Globalization Interdependence Tourism Demand
DOI10.1177/00472875211072551
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaSocial Sciences - Other Topics
WOS SubjectHospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism
WOS IDWOS:000760385900001
PublisherSAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85128499167
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF INTEGRATED RESORT AND TOURISM MANAGEMENT
Affiliation1.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao
2.School of Aviation, Faculty of Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Business Administration
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Rockie U Kei Kuok,Tay T. R. Koo,Christine Lim. Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2023, 62(3), 540-562.
APA Rockie U Kei Kuok., Tay T. R. Koo., & Christine Lim (2023). Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach. Journal of Travel Research, 62(3), 540-562.
MLA Rockie U Kei Kuok,et al."Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Tourism Demand: A Global Vector Autoregressive Approach".Journal of Travel Research 62.3(2023):540-562.
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